Bitunix Analyst: High interest rates are replacing war and becoming the new pricing core of the market

BlockBeats News, June 23 — A clear shift has begun in the global markets: geopolitical risks still exist, but the dominance of asset prices is gradually returning to monetary policy and liquidity conditions. Technical talks between the US and Iran have officially started in Switzerland, with the US simultaneously issuing a 60-day temporary license allowing Iran to resume oil sales. Both sides have also made progress on the Strait of Hormuz transit mechanism and some asset unfreezing. Concerns over energy supply disruptions are continuing to decline, and Qatar has confirmed that the explosion at a natural gas plant was merely an industrial accident, not affecting LNG exports, further reinforcing expectations of supply recovery.

However, market focus has gradually shifted to the Federal Reserve. The impact of Powell’s first meeting since taking office is still unfolding, with the latest Bank of America report even predicting the Fed may raise interest rates three times this year, totaling 75 basis points. Meanwhile, internal reforms to reduce forward guidance at the Fed are gaining more support from officials, and markets are beginning to accept a new environment of decreasing monetary policy transparency and rising volatility.

This re-pricing has been reflected first in global asset markets. The US dollar remains strong, and after the yen approached historic lows again, it experienced sharp fluctuations. Emergency communications between Japanese and US finance ministers also indicate that exchange rate risks are heating up. On the other hand, high-valuation growth assets are starting to face pressure. SpaceX has declined for the third consecutive trading day, with its market cap falling significantly from its peak, reflecting that as markets begin recalculating funding costs, long-term growth stories no longer enjoy the previous valuation premiums.

For the crypto market, this indicates a shift in sources of risk. Over the past few weeks, markets mainly traded on war, energy, and shipping risks; now, as Middle East tensions gradually enter negotiation frameworks, markets are refocusing on dollar liquidity, US Treasury yields, and the Fed’s policy direction. If rate hike expectations continue to rise, capital will favor the dollar and high-yield fixed income assets. To attract incremental funds again, the crypto market still needs to wait for new signals of liquidity environment turning points.

In the short term, easing Middle East risks will help suppress energy prices, but what truly influences the next phase of risk asset performance is no longer whether the Strait of Hormuz is open, but whether markets begin to believe the Fed will enter another rate hike cycle. This also means that in the coming weeks, market volatility will gradually shift from geopolitical concerns to inflation data, employment figures, and the Fed’s policy signals themselves.