After reaching a phased consensus in the Iran-U.S. negotiations, control of the Strait of Hormuz has been handed over to Tehran and entered the implementation phase.

In the past 24 hours, 24 merchant ships have completed transit, matching the average level of the previous three days, but still well below the normal flow of 140 ships per day before the crisis, with slow recovery of shipping traffic.

Regarding the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, both Iran and the U.S. have agreed to extend the ceasefire period by 60 days and establish a "Conflict Avoidance Group" to coordinate tensions between Hezbollah and Israel.
However, Israeli Defense Minister Gantz previously stated that Israeli military actions are "not subject to any restrictions," and Israel's non-cooperation remains the biggest risk.

Internal political resistance in the U.S. is beginning to emerge.
Senators Ted Cruz and Roger Wicker have publicly questioned whether the agreement's terms are too lenient on Iran and whether they harm regional security.
If the hardline factions in Congress initiate legislative opposition or pressure the administration, the 60-day roadmap implementation will face additional uncertainties.

Finally, the slow recovery of Strait transit indicates geopolitical risks, which may only gradually diminish rather than quickly clear.
The extension of the ceasefire is a positive signal, but the threefold risks of domestic political resistance in the U.S., Israel's non-cooperation, and divisions between Iran's military and political layers have not been eliminated.

Next, the PCE data on June 25 will serve as a key catalyst for the next direction.
Until the threefold risks are resolved, it is not advisable to hold large positions.