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Summarize the logic and reasons behind the decline in US stocks and Asian markets from last night to today:
1⃣ The expectation of interest rate hikes is negative for now, especially for big tech companies that are currently spending wildly and delaying cash flow: such as GOOGLE, AMZN, MSFT
2⃣ The excellent performance of Zhipu has led people to question whether the large investments in large language models are necessary, thereby questioning whether giants will cut costs, with Google (nicknamed "North American Bean Bag") currently falling behind in Gemini as the first to be affected.
This wave is somewhat similar to the previous DeepSeek moment.
3⃣ Before Micron’s earnings report, there was a risk-averse demand, combined with Korea’s massive deleveraging.
4⃣ The pension rebalancing at the end of June and CTA quantitative selling.
Carefully analyze these negative factors.
1. The interest rate hike expectation is based on FOMC hawkish statements and past CPI data, but the problem is that CPI increases were due to oil prices. Now that the core issues are resolved, I don’t think it’s a big problem.
2. Regarding Zhipu, my feeling is that the moat between LLMs is somewhat low. If you become slightly less intelligent, user migration is just a matter of switching APIs.
I believe the biggest negative here is that if later entrants can easily catch up through distillation or imitation at low cost, is there still a need for the major players’ huge frontier exploration investments? Will it ultimately lead to a prisoner's dilemma where everyone is reluctant to continue training?
3. I don’t think there’s a need to worry about Micron’s earnings; based on various expectations and information sources, the earnings are definitely a double beat, but how the market reacts is uncertain.
4. As for capital-related issues, it will be better after June.
In summary, the real negative concern is that capital expenditure may not be sustainable. The emergence of Zhipu has increased everyone’s anxiety, compounded by increased leverage after the rise. But currently, there’s no evidence to prove that spending will decrease. Overall, I think it’s still a buy-the-dip opportunity.