A perspective based on market structure linked to the #Bitcoin halving cycle.

1. Halving 1 (28/11/2012)
Peak: November 2013 ≈ $1,150 – $1,163
Bottom: January 2015 ≈ $152 – $200
Drop from peak: ~83–87%
Time from peak to bottom: ~410 days (~13–14 months)
Characteristics: The first cycle had a strong price increase after halving, then collapsed due to Mt. Gox ...
2. Halving 2 (7/9/2016)
Peak: December 2017 ≈ $19,783 – $20,000
Bottom: December 2018 ≈ $3,200 – $3,800
Drop from peak: ~84%
Time from peak to bottom: ~364 days (~12 months)
Characteristics: Massive boom thanks to #ICO.
#Altseason 2017–2018 (sau halving 7/2016) #BTC dominance decreased from ~86% to the lowest ~38–40%. Main reason: ICO boom (thousands of new projects). Performance: Hundreds of #alt tăng 10x–100x+ trong vài tháng (nhiều coin từ vài #cents up to a few USD.
=> This was the strongest and broadest #altseason in history.
3. Halving 3 (5/11/2020)
Peak: November 2021 ≈ $68,789 – $69,000
Bottom: November 2022 ≈ $15,479 – $15,500
Drop from peak: ~77–78%
Time from peak to bottom: ~376 days (~12 months)
Characteristics: Major organizations/funds (MicroStrategy, Tesla, future ETFs) + stories about DeFi/NFTs
#Altseason 2020–2021 (sau halving 5/2020) #BTC.D% decreased from ~70% to ~38%. Main reason: DeFi (2020) spilling into 2021 + NFT boom + Layer-1 alt L1s (SOL, AVAX, LUNA…). Performance: Many #alt tăng mạnh trước hoặc quanh đỉnh bitcoin:native . #Altcoin Season Index approaching 100 points.
=> This was a #altseason with more distinct content than 2017.
4. Halving 4 (19/4/2024)
Peak: 10/6/2025 ≈ $126,198 – $126,296
Bottom: Not yet determined (in exploration phase)
Drop from peak (until mid-June 2026): ~49–52% (price around $64,000 – $67,000)
Time: Peak to now ~8–9 months; bottom may be deeper.
This is an unusual point as this cycle has not yet experienced a true #altseason.
While the downward trend from the #Bitcoin peak: 87% → 84% → 78% → ~50% (ongoing). The decline is gradually easing across cycles. Main reasons:
- The market is more mature (larger market cap).
- Long-term holders and ETF HODL.
- Less extreme FUD or other bullish drivers compared to early stages.
Meanwhile, as of June 2026:
- Altcoin Season Index: Fluctuates 47–51 (according to CoinMarketCap & Blockchain Center). → Not yet #altseason (confirmation threshold usually 75). Reached 78 in September 2025 but then dropped sharply.
#Bitcoin Dominance: Around 56–60% (recently slightly down to ~56.35%). → Still in a high zone. Key threshold for strong sell-offs is usually below 55% (preferably below 50–52%).
=> Clearly, there is some abnormality here.
Expect #BTC sẽ về mức 22-30k hoặc nếu chu kỳ phân mảnh hơn thì có thể #BTC to bottom around 43-50k. It would be reasonable considering the path of #BTC giảm mà san sẻ DOM cho #altcoins.
Wishing you peace and happiness.
Wishing you abundance.
Sending love… love… love.
Warning: this is personal opinion, not financial advice. I do not solicit individual or collective investments.
Be cautious with your decisions in the market.
You can ask yourself questions by clicking the pinned link on my profile.
#giapduclong