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Goldman Sachs' prediction model based on 50k Monte Carlo simulations shows that Spain leads with a 24.7% chance of winning the championship, followed by France (17.4%) and defending champion Argentina (15.0%), with the three teams accounting for nearly 60% of the total championship probability. In terms of advancing to the final, Spain has a 36.4% chance, France 27.4%, and Argentina 27.6%.
Spain's possession and control system and squad depth remain the biggest assets for winning the championship, but France's explosiveness and tournament experience are equally formidable.
Argentina's title defense is limited by defensive injuries, and while Messi's "last dance" is touching, replicating the miracle of the last tournament is quite challenging.
Personally, I lean more towards France—Kylian Mbappé is in his prime, the team is balanced in attack and defense, and their dominance in the first match was convincing.
France might be the champion.
The biggest dark horse should be Japan or Norway.
The predicted result for Argentina vs. Austria is Argentina 2-1.
France vs. Iraq is predicted to be France 3-0. Note, these are predictions, not actual results.