Grayscale Research Report: If the Federal Reserve Does Not Choose to Raise Interest Rates, Bitcoin May Catch Up to the US Stock Market

On June 22, Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale Investments, pointed out in the latest analysis report that since the outbreak of the Iran war at the end of February, the U.S. stock market has risen by 9%, while Bitcoin has fallen by 1%, and gold has dropped by 20%.

He stated that massive spending in the AI sector has driven stock market gains, while Bitcoin and gold have performed relatively lagging, mainly due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates to combat inflation pressures.

Pandl emphasized that their baseline expectation is that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate level. The report believes that Bitcoin and gold, as non-yielding assets, compete with fiat currencies;

When the actual interest rates announced by the Federal Reserve increase, it will significantly raise the opportunity cost of holding assets like Bitcoin and gold, thereby suppressing market demand for such assets.

However, if the Federal Reserve ultimately chooses not to raise interest rates and rates fall as expected, Bitcoin prices are expected to "catch up" with the stock market trend.

Pandl also believes that at current price levels, Bitcoin, as a portfolio diversification tool, has become attractive.

He also pointed out that Bitcoin is not only a scarce digital commodity and a long-term store of value but also a vehicle for participating in the growth of the crypto industry, functioning similarly to a combination of gold and growth stocks.

At the time of the report's release, about half of Federal Reserve officials believed that 2026 might be suitable for rate hikes, while the European Central Bank has already taken the lead in raising interest rates.

#美联储 # Bitcoin