Serenity: Photonics and CW lasers may become the next key investment theme for AI infrastructure

BlockBeats News, June 23 — "White Hair" Serenity posted on social media:

I think the photonics theme combined with CW laser bottlenecks is simply top-tier. It’s like the market has short-term amnesia, forgetting how LITE has risen from $3 billion to over $65 billion since 2024. Because NVDA caused the EML bottleneck and forced architecture changes.

We are now indeed seeing the same situation — AMD and other cloud service providers are snapping up remaining shares through large-scale agreements for CW lasers and optical components. Goldman Sachs research estimates that by 2028, the optical TAM will be about 9 to 10 times larger, reaching $154 billion; while CPO TAM has grown from nearly zero to $91 billion in just two and a half years.

Don’t just disappear because of a month’s trading volatility. AAOI’s market cap is about $13 billion, AAOI’s market cap is about $13 billion, SIVE about $3 billion, and other CW laser players look very valuable strategically. Then, in the next 1-2 years, there may be some new small trends, such as microLED or quantum dots, and we will see the same thing repeat. I believe Sumitomo’s prediction about CW laser share and silicon photonics becoming mainstream/dominant architecture should be correct. I personally just focus on that bottleneck, just like you see with SOI, SOI, TSEM, SIVE, and other stocks.