**6/23 #黄金早报 ** 🪨

##| Indicator | Value |
|:---|:---|
| International Gold Price | $4,189/ounce |
| Domestic Gold Price | 905 RMB/gram |
| 7-day Change | -1.5% |
| ATH Drawdown | -25.6% (January $5,597) |

### Last Night's Major Events
1. **U.S.-Iran 60-Day Agreement Roadmap**: Strait of Hormuz reopens, geopolitical premium diminishes → oil prices drop 3% → gold price briefly surged to $4,220 then retreated
2. **Federal Reserve Rate Hike Probability Soars**: CME pricing 87% chance of rate hike in December (previously 61%), 52.2% in September, 38.5% in July
3. **Israel Airstrikes Lebanon**: Ceasefire broken within hours, Iran threatens to exit negotiations, the first test of the 60-day agreement has arrived

### Key Price Levels
| | Support | Resistance |
|:---|:---|:---|
| First Level | $4,120 | $4,220 |
| Strong Zone | $4,000-4,050 | $4,250-4,300 |
| Extreme | $3,886-3,750 | $4,380 |

### Strategy
- **Short-term Bearish**: US Dollar Index 101+, rate hike expectations 70%, below 200-day moving average, rebound to $4,220-4,250 faces resistance, consider light short positions
- **Mid-term Layout**: $4,000-4,100 is the central bank's gold purchase cost zone, very low probability of falling below $4,000 (89% of surveyed central banks plan to increase holdings), this range can be accumulated in batches
- **Core Variables**: **Thursday's PCE Data** — inflation exceeds expectations → rate hike expectations strengthen → gold revisits $4,000; inflation cools → easing expectations revive → gold recovers toward $4,300

### Key Time Nodes
- **6/26 Thursday**: US May Core PCE (this week's directional decision window)
- **Within 60 days**: Final results of US-Iran nuclear negotiations (determine medium- to long-term inflation trend)
- **September**: Federal Reserve decision (Zhang Yaoxi predicts a bull market restart after September, Goldman Sachs maintains year-end target of $5,400)

> Gold has shifted from "panic safe-haven" to "inflation hedge allocation," short-term suppressed by rate hikes but $4,000 remains a strong support, the medium- to long-term bull case unchanged. [Source: Jintou