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SemiAnalysis: AI demand is driving up the fundamental chip prices, and the unit computing power cost is rising.

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Mars Finance News: On June 23, SemiAnalysis, an independent research institute focused on semiconductors and AI, said that in the short term, AI demand is outpacing the rate of cost reductions enabled by Moore’s Law. Between 2001 and 2020, Moore’s Law had driven down the import prices of computers and semiconductors by 52%. However, with AI demand rising sharply, the import prices of computers and semiconductors rose 3.6% in May and increased 14.4% year over year. This increase is far from anything seen in historical records, and describing it as the “fastest in history” is no longer enough. After adjusting import prices for quality-of-life (hedonic) effects—which already account for improvements in chip speed and capacity—such prices would normally fall over time under Moore’s Law. But the current real chip shortage is pushing up these hedonic-adjusted prices, meaning the market is paying higher prices per unit of computing power, not merely paying more for better chips. Import prices are calculated before tariffs, so these price increases reflect the base prices before tariff surcharges are applied, rather than the result of adding tariff costs.
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