Bitcoin has closed above $63k for three consecutive weeks, with RSI showing bullish divergence, funding rates retreating, and ETF outflows slowing down—technical and on-chain data seem to tell the same story: selling pressure is waning.

But within the same on-chain panorama, CryptoQuant's data shows network activity reaching a new high in 2024, with daily transaction volume surpassing 800k transactions, mainly driven by low-value protocols like Ordinals and Runes.
Economic transactions have not warmed up in tandem.
Long-term holder supply has risen to 12.42 million BTC, and the sell pressure indicator has been inactive for 1,256 days, a typical bottom-holding structure, but also another sign of liquidity drying up.
Two major whales opened a combined $175 million long position today, Morgan Stanley continues to add positions, while ETF outflows have persisted at $540 million over the past two weeks.
Institutional funds show a clear divergence between spot and futures: on one side, traditional funds are slowly withdrawing via ETFs; on the other, leveraged funds are betting on a rebound near $64k.
What does this split imply? If on-chain activity is just “noise trading” rather than driven by real economic demand, then the foundation for price recovery is unstable.
A weekly close stabilization is a positive sign, but the market needs to see sustainable application scenarios or capital inflows to confirm a bottom, rather than relying solely on technical inertia from lows.
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