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Morgan Stanley: Liquidity tightening is the recent threat facing the U.S. stock market

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Golden Finance reported that on June 23, Morgan Stanley Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson said that despite weakness in the stock market and a flattening yield curve, last week’s FOMC meeting led by Federal Reserve Chair Powell was a good and necessary first step toward rebuilding the Fed’s credibility. Wilson said that since Powell received his nomination in February, the ratio of the S&P 500 index to gold has risen by nearly 40%, and he believes this reflects a strong vote of confidence from the market in the new chair’s ability to restore policy discipline. Morgan Stanley strategists noted that liquidity, rather than rate hikes, is the main risk facing the stock market in the near term. He said the scale of the reserve management plan has fallen by about 75% from its peak, and the size of Treasury repurchase agreements has also been reduced by 50%. Wilson warned that accelerating loan growth has intensified liquidity tightening, because the real economy is absorbing more capital even as balance-sheet support shrinks. He expects July U.S. stock market performance to be volatile and possible pullbacks to occur, with the next round of a profit-driven bull market delayed until liquidity headwinds are removed. Wilson also said that he supports Powell’s approach to reducing overly forward guidance; he believes the market should react to newly released data rather than trying to predict the Federal Reserve’s statements. (Jin10)
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