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The market is entering another “killing the miners” phase again.
More and more BTC miners are nearing the break-even point.
Currently, the network-wide average “shutdown coin price” is roughly between $58,000 and $63,000, while the all-in cost for listed mining companies is between $68,000 and $74,000.
In fact, in the first few cycles, because the profit room was large enough, as long as the big one’s (BTC’s) price dropped slightly, miners would still typically keep their machines running—but under today’s network competition, miners’ profits are already very thin.
Reality reflected in the data shows that more than 20% of miners have already entered the loss zone.
In addition, listed mining companies (such as MARA and RIOT) are carrying heavy fiat-denominated debt and interest. To pay fixed electricity bills, they can no longer accumulate coins long-term the way they used to, and they can only choose to unload inventory aggressively (selling 32,000 BTC in Q1 was just to stay alive).
If prices fall and remain below the cost range for a long time, miners will be forced to liquidate inventories in a stampede, at the time when market liquidity is worst and panic selling is most intense, while stock prices crash and the risk of default on equipment-mortgage loans compounds.
Multiple forces erupt at the same time, which could push BTC down into a deep hole.