$BTC How does the US stock market influence the crypto world? Complete correlation logic

1. Core underlying: Both belong to the risk asset pool, sharing global USD liquidity

The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes/lowers, US Treasury yields, and the US dollar index are the main switches connecting the two:

- Expectation of rate cuts, liquidity easing: funds flow into tech stocks + cryptocurrencies, NASDAQ rises → BTC rises in tandem;

- Rate hikes, balance sheet reduction, rising US Treasury yields: institutions sell all high-volatility risk assets, US stocks plummet → BTC crashes in tandem;
When the VIX fear index soars, stocks and cryptocurrencies both deeply retrace, with correlation short-term soaring to 0.6~0.8.

2. Institutional funds' bidirectional flow (the strongest driver of linkage)

1. US-listed companies holding BTC
MicroStrategy (MSTR), Coinbase (COIN), Tesla, etc.:

- MSTR stock price is highly correlated with BTC price, BTC rises → MSTR surges, boosting tech sentiment in the NASDAQ, and vice versa also influences the crypto market;

- Coinbase, as the only major US-listed crypto company, when US stocks crash, COIN plunges, directly undermining market confidence in the crypto industry.

2. Wall Street asset managers (BlackRock, Grayscale)
Simultaneously issuing US stock ETFs + Bitcoin spot ETFs, funds are allocated uniformly: redemption of US stock ETFs also withdraws from GBTC/BTC spot, creating bidirectional selling.

3. Characteristics of market linkage in three stages

1. Short-term intraday linkage (strongest)
Pre-market/main session US stock volatility directly drives BTC: NASDAQ futures plunge, BTC in Asia preemptively drops; US stocks surge overnight, BTC quickly rebounds at dawn, with BTC volatility generally 2~3 times that of NASDAQ (“NASDAQ leverage”).

2. Mid-term cycles (macro cycle dominated)
Rate hike cycle: stocks and crypto continue to trend bear; rate cut cycle: trend bullish together.

3. Phase decoupling (breaking the linkage with independent narratives)
When major crypto-specific positive news occurs, independent trends emerge: BTC spot ETF approvals in batches, Ethereum upgrades, legalization by major countries, large on-chain ecosystem explosions; at this point, the impact of US stock rises or falls on the crypto market significantly weakens, with correlation coefficients dropping below 0.1.

4. Four major transmission channels

1. Macro interest rate transmission: 10-year US Treasury yield ↑ → tech stock valuations under pressure → cryptocurrencies also under pressure;

2. Risk appetite transmission: US stock market crash = global funds seek safe assets, selling BTC for USD stablecoins;

3. Cross-market rebalancing transmission: Quant funds using the same risk model, simultaneously reducing holdings in stocks + crypto;

4. Industry sentiment transmission: Price movements of crypto concept stocks like Coinbase, MSTR, directly shape industry expectations.

5. Special divergence scenarios (not always moving in the same direction)

1. Extreme geopolitical crises: US stocks crash sharply, BTC temporarily acts as a safe haven asset and rises against the trend;

2. Excess USD liquidity but US stocks peak: funds flow out of US stocks into the crypto world;

3. Major positive/negative crypto regulatory news: US stocks stagnate, BTC surges or crashes unilaterally.