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Nomura: The Federal Reserve's June policy meeting could become a pivotal turning point marking the end of the credit cycle and the AI boom
The firm expects that the Federal Reserve is very likely to remain on hold throughout 2026. Once Waller's policy stance gradually becomes clearer, coupled with inflation expectations being confirmed during the oil price decline, the current market pricing of about 1.5 rate hikes is likely to be quickly corrected. However, Matsuzawa also emphasized that the real risk is not whether there will be one or two rate hikes this year, but rather how likely these so-called preventative steps are to eventually evolve into a full, sustained cycle of substantial tightening.