Markets are closely monitoring U.S.–Iran negotiations

Direct talks began today in Switzerland between the United States and Iran, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, with the aim of ending the war and opening the Strait of Hormuz within 60 days 7848

The most important point:
Iran has made the cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon, a key condition before discussing the nuclear file. The Iranian Foreign Ministry confirmed that “Washington is responsible for ensuring the halt of Israeli attacks on Lebanon”

What this means for the markets:
1. Lebanon is now the key to the deal. Any escalation in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah = negotiations will halt immediately
2. The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of the world’s oil. Iran closed it on Saturday after Israeli strikes on Lebanon
3. Trump threatened to strike Iran “more strongly than last time” if its proxies in Lebanon cause problems

Conclusion: The U.S. dollar, gold, oil, and the Dow Jones are all waiting for one piece of news from Lebanon. Geopolitical tension = strong volatility this week.

⚠️ This is an analysis of events, not a trading recommendation. Risk management is the most important.

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