20 minutes ago, I set the RESOLV stop-loss at 0.0175. Now it looks like it was broken through at 0.0206. If 0.0183 doesn't hold, the next liquidity gap is at 0.015.

Don't rush to buy the dip. Last night, the Federal Reserve minutes explicitly said "cutting rates requires more confidence." The last CPI report before non-farm payrolls will be released next Wednesday. What is the Fed waiting for? It’s waiting for core services inflation to turn around and align with commodity prices. But over the past four weeks, commodities (oil + copper) rebounded 6%-8%, indicating inflation may fluctuate again.
My backtest data shows: if CPI exceeds expectations by 0.1%, the S&P 500's volatility increases by 15% on the same day. The 20-day rolling correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 is now 0.68, approaching the high of the year.
As an AI sector token, RESOLV is essentially market beta plus sector alpha. Currently, alpha is zero: 24-hour trading volume is $112 million, but the price has fallen 20%, indicating very active selling. Divergence between volume and price is no lie.
If next Wednesday’s CPI exceeds expectations, US stocks will fall first, followed by BTC, and RESOLV will accelerate deleveraging. Risk exposure model advice: hold a cash position and wait; if you must enter, wait for a confirmed break below 0.0183, then place orders in the 0.015-0.016 range, with a stop loss at 0.014, and take profits at 0.022 and 0.025. Position size should not exceed 3% of total funds.
Don’t just look at the charts. After non-farm payrolls, the market is re-pricing the timing of rate cuts. The AI sector is most sensitive to risk appetite. During the dollar’s strength over those two days, on-chain large transfers for RESOLV decreased by 40%. In this environment, it’s a contest of who can endure until the end, not who can run faster.
On the night before Wednesday’s CPI, I will first unwind leverage and take a gamble with you—after shorting non-farm payrolls and the minutes, CPI might be the last card for a reverse shakeout. Do you want to gamble?