Good morning everyone～

The biggest variable in the market this weekend is still the US–Iran situation.

Many people originally thought that after both sides signed the memorandum, negotiations would gradually move forward—but unexpectedly, new variables have emerged again. The issue regarding the Strait of Hormuz has escalated once more, and both sides’ stances have clearly strengthened. The market is worried that the situation might further deteriorate afterward, so risk-averse sentiment has surged again.

Based on the current situation, although the US and Iran have not completely broken off negotiations yet, there is still a long way to go before truly reaching a comprehensive consensus. Especially when it comes to core issues such as regional conflicts and asset unfreezing, it’s not realistic to resolve everything in one go in a short period of time.

For the market, what matters most right now is not what anyone has said, but whether there will be tangible progress afterward. As long as the situation has not clearly eased, funds will most likely remain cautious.

Recently, ETF inflows have not shown any obvious return, and institutions overall are still in a wait-and-see mode, so it’s not easy for the market to generate a sustained uptrend in the short term.

Therefore, don’t think too complicated this week—just keep an eye on two directions:
One is whether there is new progress in the US–Iran situation; the other is whether institutional funds have flowed back into the market.

Until these two factors show clear changes, I personally still maintain my previous view: the overall market is more like a range-bound consolidation rather than directly choosing a direction.

From the weekly timeframe, we are still in a choppy phase within the 60,000–67,000 range, and there haven’t been real breakout or reversal signals yet.

In terms of trading, stick to the old playbook—focus on short-term trades and swing trades, and patiently wait for the market to provide a clear direction.

BTC: watch the 64,000–66,000 range;
ETH: watch the 1,700–1,770 range;
SOL: watch the 72–76 range.
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