Serenity discusses AAOI: If revenue meets expectations or corresponds to over 800% year-over-year growth, monthly revenue will increase to $471 million

BlockBeats message. On June 22, market participants discussed the valuation and growth expectations of optical communication concept stock AAOI on social media platforms, sparking investors’ debate over what a reasonable buy-in price would be.

Serenity said that if the company’s revenue fulfills expectations, or corresponds to a year-over-year growth of over 800%, it may achieve approximately $5.6 billion in annualized revenue (based on an estimated current market cap of about $12.8 billion), while monthly revenue can continue to grow to around $471 million, mainly driven by the expansion of demand for AI infrastructure.

The discussion believed that, in the backdrop of constrained industry capacity, cloud service providers (CSPs) and customers such as Advanced Micro Devices continue to lock in supply through long-term agreements (LTA), or help drive industry pricing and profit margins upward.

Under the assumption that demand grows exponentially through 2028, average selling price (ASP) and profit margin may improve in tandem, but the final buy-in price still depends on each investor’s own risk appetite and valuation judgment.