A dip in Bitcoin around $50,000 before fall? That’s the scenario suggested by an indicator borrowed from traditional finance.

Vincent Ganne applies the Sharpe ratio to BTC.
It’s the return relative to risk, used everywhere in asset management.
What he observes from past cycles (2013, 2017, 2021, 2025):
🔸 Highest ratio = near market peaks (euphoria)
🔸 Ratio below -1.5 = capitulation, extreme fear… and historically the best zones for long-term accumulation
The current level: about -1.15.
In other words: we’re in the red, but not yet at the threshold that marked the true lows of previous cycles. As long as -1.5 isn’t reached, Vincent doesn’t rule out one last weakness, with a possible cyclical bottom around $50,000–$55,000, somewhere between this summer and early fall.
⚠️ Important: an indicator is never read alone. It’s cross-checked with macro data, on-chain data, and charts. It’s not a crystal ball, just one more reference point.
The real question: what if the worst thing to do is to buy the “rebound” before fear has peaked?