SPCX continues to decline after opening, and many friends place their hopes on passive buying of subsequent index funds.

Regarding this, my view has always been clear: passive buying can influence short-term trends, but what determines a stock's long-term direction is always the growth rate and market expectations.

Historically, after large IPOs, it is common to experience phased inclusion in index funds such as Russell, MSCI, and Nasdaq 100. We can look at Facebook’s case to see how much impact these passive funds can actually have:

After its IPO on May 18, 2012, Facebook’s stock price dropped from $38 to around $18, then experienced:

• December 2012: inclusion in Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
• June 2013: inclusion in MSCI index
• June 28, 2013: inclusion in Russell index

These index inclusions indeed brought in passive funds and market attention, but Facebook did not immediately break out into a long-term upward trend solely because of the index inclusion. What truly changed everything was not the index inclusion itself. The turning point for Facebook was the Q2 earnings report announced on July 24, 2013.

Mobile advertising revenue exceeded expectations, and the market for the first time realized that Facebook not only has a huge user base but also possesses strong commercial monetization capabilities. Subsequently, the stock price truly rose from the mid-$20s to over $50 and $70. By the time it was officially included in the S&P 500 on December 20, 2013, Facebook had already experienced a significant upward trend.

From Facebook’s historical movement, it’s clear—index inclusion is a catalyst, but earnings reports are the engine.

Returning to SPCX, passive fund buying in the coming weeks may indeed influence short-term movements, but if the company's core business, revenue, cash flow, and market expectations are not continuously fulfilled, then after passive funds finish buying, the stock price will ultimately revert to its fundamental valuation.

Friends caught at high levels can pay attention to these passive fund windows, but don’t take index inclusion as a lifeline. While index inclusion can change short-term supply and demand, it cannot determine the long-term trend.

In the short term, focus on capital; in the medium term, focus on expectations; ultimately, in the long term, it’s still about the company itself. #SPCX $SPCX