**6/23 Soccer Prediction** (Based on the latest official odds at 19:45)

043 Norway vs Senegal → **Draw@3.30**

- Asian handicap only -0.25, the bookmaker clearly does not favor Norway to win
- Norway's 4-1 win in the first round has some water: includes an own goal + goalkeeper mistake, xG only 2.59, actual efficiency not sustainable
- Senegal's first-half xG 0.47 vs France 0.02, two missed goal opportunities, their strength is seriously underestimated
- In the second round of the group stage, both sides are cautious and do not dare to take risks; a draw is a reasonable result
- **Estimated probability 33-35%, EV +9%~+15%**

## France (-3) vs Iraq → **Handicap draw@4.50**

- France winning by 2-3 goals is the most reasonable (scores like 3-0/4-1 are the top search analysis scores)
- Iraq's solid defense + France may rotate players to conserve energy, winning by 4 goals is difficult
- **Estimated probability 22-25%, EV +0%~+12%**

### 041 Argentina (-1) vs Austria → **Handicap draw@3.48** ⚠️ Marginal

- Argentina is likely to win by a small margin: Austria's pressing restrains their aging midfield
- Missing Taliafico + M'Vila, two key full-backs, right-side defense forced to reorganize
- The three odds for the handicap are 2.28/3.48/2.48, very close, indicating the bookmaker sees the highest probability of winning by 1 goal
- **Estimated probability 28-30%, EV -2%~+4%**, edge not enough to meet the 8% threshold

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### Parlay plan

| Plan | Combination | Odds |
|:---:|:---|:---:|
| Main | Norway vs Senegal Draw@3.30 × France (-3) Handicapped draw@4.50 | **14.85** |
| Alternative | Norway vs Senegal Draw@3.30 × Argentina (-1) Handicapped draw@3.48 | **11.48** |

044 No recommendation for Jordan vs Algeria — Algeria's first round had 0 shots on target, which is absurd; although their market value is much higher, their attacking side is a black box, so probability estimation is impossible.