Bitcoin holds near the $64,000 level as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance weighs on the positive impact of hopes for an Iran ceasefire, while ETFs continue to record net outflows for a sixth straight week.

BlockBeats News, June 22—On Monday, Bitcoin held around $64,000 and remained stuck in range-bound fluctuations. Last week, the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, formally bringing an end to more than 100 days of conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which temporarily pushed Bitcoin above $67,000, but the rally was soon suppressed by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance.

On the policy front, the newly appointed Federal Reserve chair Wosh sent a hawkish signal at his first FOMC meeting. CME FedWatch shows that the probability of a rate hike at the July meeting is about 36%, and the market expects at least one 25 basis point hike during the year. In May, CPI rose 4.2% year over year, far exceeding the Fed’s 2% target, which completely dashed expectations for rate cuts. The US dollar index DXY subsequently rebounded to the 100.6 to 100.8 range, creating historic downward pressure on Bitcoin.

On the capital front, US Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for six consecutive weeks. Over the past 30 days, cumulative net outflows reached $63.5 billion, setting a historical record. Signs of institutional capital returning remain unclear.

In the options market, one-month implied volatility is about 39%, while realized volatility has risen to above 42%. Actual price fluctuations have already exceeded market pricing, indicating weakness rather than directional confidence. About $1.8 billion worth of options short positions are concentrated below $62,000. Once the price falls below that level, the sell pressure from market makers forced to hedge will further accelerate the downside, potentially triggering a cascading drop to $60,000.

Analysts have set Bitcoin’s recent trading range at $60,000 to $67,000, believing the market is in a “balance between support and suppressing forces.”