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“Private Equity Witch” Li Bei’s Letter to Investors: The Fund’s Net Asset Value Has Experienced a Significant Pullback, Strongly Warning Investors to Be Cautious When Pursuing AI
In the letter, Li Bei candidly admitted that the related holdings have recently come under obvious pressure, with the correction in domestic demand and real estate sectors exceeding expectations.
The most attention-grabbing part of the letter directly points to the current market sentiment: she expressed full understanding of investors who have lost patience, respecting those who wish to redeem and hold cash to wait and see, but for investors who want to redeem funds to chase the rise of AI, she said, "Even if you curse me, I still want to advise you, be very cautious."
Regarding the logic of not chasing AI, Li Bei clearly pointed out that the trigger conditions for the AI bubble burst have already appeared—taking the annual revenue growth rate of Anthropic as an example, the revenue growth of downstream model companies has significantly slowed, and by the end of the year, it is highly likely to fall below the market's previously optimistic expectations. The subsequent decline in capital expenditure expectations is also highly probable.
She also pointed out that the current AI industry chain is in a stage of "high profitability and valuation, declining leading indicators, and still rising lagging indicators," which theoretically is a window for gradually withdrawing rather than chasing more.
Regarding her own holdings, Li Bei firmly believes that leading companies related to domestic demand are currently undervalued, with consumer giants' P/E ratios dropping from over 50 times at their peak to less than 10 times. Even if domestic demand remains at a bottom oscillation in the long term, it can still generate good absolute returns over a two-year horizon; once domestic demand rebounds or there are unexpected policies in real estate, it is expected to quickly realize significant excess returns.