#预测世界杯法国VS伊拉克

I know 99% of people will bet on France to win big. But I want to look at it from a different perspective—does Iraq really stand no chance?

Iraq is returning to the World Cup after 40 years. They lost 1-4 to Norway in the first match, but they scored one goal. Ayman Hussein’s goal proves this team isn’t completely without attacking ability.

A few points worth noting:

1. Iraq is not afraid of European teams—they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 4 matches against European teams. They even drew Spain in a warm-up match.
2. Set pieces are their breakthrough—Iraq averages 3.8 corners per game, and set pieces are their most realistic scoring opportunities. France has conceded goals in their last 6 matches, so their defense isn’t impenetrable.
3. France may rotate their lineup—Deschamps has indicated he will make lineup changes against Iraq. Plus, France still has to play Norway afterward, so they might not go all out from the start.
4. Iraq’s head coach Arnold specializes in defensive counterattacks—the team plays straightforward, with strong front-line impact and physical confrontation. Although they admit “containing Mbappé is a challenge,” Iraq will defend with all they’ve got.

Of course, the gap in strength is clear: France is ranked 3rd in the world, Iraq is 60th. Iraq’s substitute forward Mohanad Ali is injured, further reducing their attacking resources.

My prediction: France wins, but Iraq won’t lose too badly—3-0 or 3-1. Iraq will concede at most 3 goals.

Polymarket strategy: Iraq +2.5 (handicap) is worth a small bet for a cold shot. Betting on Iraq to win at 40x is a money giveaway, but the handicap has some value.