ETF funds have been flowing out for six consecutive weeks, but on-chain data tells a different story.

Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw another $227 million outflow, continuing a six-week negative flow trend.
On the surface, it appears that institutional funds are retreating, with the dollar index reaching a new high since May 2025, compounded by macroeconomic pressures, while Bitcoin hovers around $64,000.
However, on-chain structural signals have begun to diverge: long-term holders have realized their supply to about 12.17 million coins, approaching the bottom levels of previous cycles.
At the same time, the cyclical momentum indicator has fallen into the -30 range, which historically has been a major support level.
Analysts point out that the sell pressure indicator has not triggered a signal for 1,256 days in a row, the longest silent period in history.
What does this mean?
ETF outflows more reflect short-term macro sentiment and arbitrage behavior rather than structural selling by long-term holders.
Long-term holders have reached a new high in holdings, and selling pressure has dried up, but market confidence has not yet been restored—price and on-chain structure are showing a typical divergence.
The risk is that: the bottom structure remains incomplete.
If the sell pressure indicator continues to stay silent, or if long-term holder supply does not rise above 15 million coins, bottom confirmation could be delayed.
If the dollar continues to strengthen and ETF outflows persist, Bitcoin still has downside potential.
Currently, the market is in a split state of “optimistic structural signals, pessimistic price performance.”
Historical experience suggests that such divergence often foreshadows a directional choice, but the direction depends on macro turning points and when ETF funds will flow back in.
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