Has the market fully priced in the September rate hike?

A lower-than-expected PCE might actually be the trigger for a rebound.

The market has already priced in the September rate hike; this sounds very professional, but it's actually a typical case of "using known information to explain unknown panic."
The real question is: does the current price reflect whether a 25 basis point hike is certain?

If the PCE unexpectedly comes in lower, the previously expected 76% probability of a decline might instead trigger a rebound.
Because this indicates a crack in the Fed's hawkish narrative, and liquidity expectations could suddenly improve.

Conversely, if the rate hike exceeds 25 basis points, or if PCE remains high, the market isn't prepared—at that point, it’s not a correction but a liquidity squeeze.

My personal judgment: the Fed's biggest fear now is that the "improvement in data but still sticking to tightening" best-case scenario gets broken.
Once PCE shows face, the crypto market is likely to overshoot on the upside first, but this rebound is essentially a correction of mispricing, not a return to a bull market.

The real impact on the crypto world: the Federal Reserve still holds absolute pricing power in the crypto space.
Geopolitical easing and ETF inflows are secondary factors during a tightening cycle.
If Bitcoin can't even get past this PCE hurdle, it’s highly likely to continue trading in the 60,000–70k range in the second half of the year, and altcoin season will be nowhere #美联储紧缩再升级，本周PCE数据成关键 in sight.