Analyst: Bitcoin shows a supply structure similar to a cycle bottom, but key selling pressure indicators still do not show bottom signals.

BlockBeats News, June 22 — Cryptocurrency market analyst Axel Adler Jr. said that, according to on-chain data, the Bitcoin market is showing a supply structure similar to a cycle bottom, but one key capitulation indicator has not yet confirmed that a bottom has formed.

Long-term holder realized supply is rising. This metric measures the total realized supply entering the long-term holder cohort, and historically it tends to climb rapidly around cycle bottoms. The current level is about 12.17 million BTC, which rose to a local high of 12.42 million BTC in early June of this round. Although it then pulled back slightly, it still remains a strong year-over-year increase. Over the past year, the metric has more than doubled, indicating that more coins are shifting from short-term traders to more stable long-term holders.

This kind of change is often viewed as a sign that market resilience is strengthening. An increase in long-term holder supply means more Bitcoin is moving out of active circulation, which could reduce selling pressure; it also suggests the market is going through a process of coin accumulation and consolidation.

The problem is that this metric has not yet reached the levels seen near past bear-market bottoms. Around the bottom in late 2015, long-term holder realized supply was about 15 million BTC; around the bottom in 2018–19, about 16 million BTC; and near the bottom in 2022–23, it was close to 19.7 million BTC. By comparison, the current 12.17 million BTC, while pointing in the right direction, still falls short of the historically confirmed bottom range.

A bigger divergence comes from the sell pressure indicator. This indicator only activates when the market as a whole is in a loss state—when NUPL is negative—and it measures realized loss pressure by the extent to which SOPR deviates from 1. In other words, it captures the moment when the market truly enters the phase of pressure release, loss-driven selling, and capitulation.

At present, this indicator has gone 1,256 days without showing a signal— the longest silent period in Bitcoin history. The last signal appeared on January 13, 2023, which was at the end of the previous bear market. In the past several bottoms—including those in 2015, 2018–19, 2020, and 2022—intense sell pressure signals appeared, with peaks typically ranging from 15% to nearly 32%. In the December 2018 cycle-bottom area, this indicator reached a historical high of about 32%.

Therefore, the current market shows an incomplete bottom structure: the supply side is maturing, long-term holders are absorbing coins, but the capitulation side has not provided confirmation. The market looks more like it is in a holding, consolidation, and coin redistribution phase, rather than having already completed the classic cycle bottom where final pressure release has occurred.

In conclusion, Bitcoin does have some “bottoming” characteristics, but it still lacks the most critical link in historical cycles: the final capitulation signal brought about by loss-driven sell-offs. Stronger confirmation may require one of two conditions to appear: long-term holder realized supply rises further to above 15 million BTC, or the sell pressure indicator restarts, indicating that the market has experienced a genuine pressure-release phase.