#我的Gate交易时刻 Liquidity continues to dry up, combined with hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. Will Bitcoin replicate the prolonged bottoming process seen in 2022?

Currently, the crypto market is deeply caught in a correction cycle driven by a dual tightening of macro expectations and on-chain liquidity. Previously, easing geopolitical conflicts and the optimistic sentiment from SpaceX’s successful listing on Nasdaq had driven Bitcoin out of oversold territory with a recovery rebound; but the new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish tightening rhetoric has completely shattered market expectations of monetary easing this year. Coupled with slowing stablecoin supply expansion and low willingness from off-chain capital to enter, the market is following the usual summer lull in crypto trading volume.

Based on various current market indicators, there is not enough strong macro positive momentum to trigger a new major upward wave for Bitcoin at this stage.

Compared to the 2025 bull market peak, spot daily trading volume has significantly shrunk, and the growth rate of new stablecoin supply continues to decline; the buying support formed by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) issuing preferred shares to purchase BTC is also diminishing. Under the resonance of policy uncertainty, seasonal industry slowdown, and market liquidity pressures, Bitcoin’s short-term price trend faces clear downside pressure.

1. Hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve exceeds expectations, policy uncertainty suppresses risk asset bullish sentiment
Previously, the market widely expected new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to lean toward easing, but the latest FOMC statement shifted entirely toward tightening. Several Fed officials have publicly stated that if inflation remains high, there is still room for rate hikes in 2026, and Warsh himself emphasized the need to rebuild the Fed’s credibility in fighting inflation. Quantitative trend models show that as long as Bitcoin cannot hold above $73,700, the medium-term downtrend will not reverse, and key resistance levels above will continue to move lower over time. Meanwhile, Warsh has not disclosed personal rate hike expectations, causing the market to lose a clear monetary policy anchor, and asset risk premiums are passively rising.

Looking back at past markets, in an environment of ambiguous policy expectations and rising tightening fears, Bitcoin has struggled to sustain a rebound. Technically, $62,446 is the most critical support level for bulls. If this support is broken, the decline will further accelerate. Referencing the 2022 bear market, even if a sharp drop does not occur, the market is likely to enter a prolonged sideways consolidation, probing for the cycle bottom through repeated testing.

2. On-chain liquidity has sharply contracted, and the lack of incremental funds limits rebound potential
Aside from macro policy negatives, liquidity exhaustion is the core internal factor constraining Bitcoin’s rebound. Recently, the daily spot trading volume has fallen to around $50 billion, compared to the bull phase from July to October 2025, when daily trading averaged $200 billion. Current trading volume is only a quarter of the bull market peak. The growth of stablecoin supply is also weakening, indirectly confirming the lack of off-chain capital inflow. By the end of 2025, the 12-month rolling growth rates of USDT and USDC surged to 52% and 122%, respectively, but now both have fallen back to around 20%, with nearly stagnant growth over six months, indicating a significant reduction in new market liquidity. The other two major channels of incremental funds—net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and the continued accumulation from Strategy issuing STRC preferred shares—are also shrinking. Previously, this financing logic drove Bitcoin up by nearly $15,000, about 20%, but now the support effect has almost disappeared. Currently, the market’s 30-day rolling net capital flow remains in net outflow, and without new strong catalysts, bulls will find it difficult to sustain a continuous upward trend.

From a macro fundamental perspective, the current inflation rate of 4.2% is well above the Fed’s long-term target of 2%. With hawkish Fed policy, seasonal industry slowdown, and liquidity constraints stacking together, Bitcoin is unlikely to hold above $60,000 in the short term. However, from another angle, this deep correction is also a necessary phase for market risk clearance. This summer might be the bottom-building window for this cycle. While prices are unlikely to reverse sharply upward in the short term, the ongoing consolidation and bottoming process are actually accumulating upward momentum for the next crypto bull run.