🔥 A piece of data that really stunned me.

Bitcoin network activity has surged to the highest level since the end of 2024, with daily transaction counts surpassing 800k—yet the price is still hovering around 64k.

On-chain activity is busy as hell, but the price remains stagnant. This divergence is suspicious.

🧵 What is the market really trading now?

It’s not about the Middle East at all.

Bitunix analysts say it plainly:

The biggest variable has already changed: the cost of capital.

Wosh’s rise to power weakened forward guidance, and the Federal Reserve’s dot plot shows 9 officials support rate hikes this year—this number was zero in March. CME data indicates a 76% chance of a rate hike in September.

From a “cutting rates” narrative to a “raising rates” narrative, it’s a fundamental suppression of risk assets.

📊 Look at the data

$BTC ‌ ：64,178, swinging between 63,000 and 65,000. The dense accumulation zone is at 67,000–67,300. Short-term rebounds are possible, but the major trend has not reversed.

$HYPE ‌ ：66.90, new tokens are highly volatile, with a nearly $5 difference in 24 hours. No.8 ranking is impressive, but at this level, chasing rallies and selling dips requires caution.

$XAU ‌ ：4,205, rising from 4,150 within the day, showing a strong rebound. This wave in gold is driven by both safe-haven demand and dollar battles.

🤔 The most divided scene

In the past 30 days, stablecoins + MicroStrategy + Bitcoin ETFs have collectively net outflows of $8 billion. Institutions are fleeing.

But on the other hand, Bitcoin network activity is approaching a historical peak, with small transactions jumping from 44% in 2023 to 80%—all protocol-driven activity, not large transfers of real money.

On-chain activity is lively, but money is leaving.

This isn’t a contradiction; it’s the answer: some are using it, some are withdrawing.

👀 What to watch next? Is there a new source of liquidity? If not, the 60k level might really be tested.

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💬 What do you think of this divergence? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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#美伊谈判第一轮结束