$BTC The Federal Reserve's tightening has been further upgraded, and this week's PCE is the short-term market dividing line.

Sharing a few personal views:
1. The market is currently worried about the Fed raising interest rates again, and the key anchor point is this week's core PCE, which the Fed values most for inflation data.
2. Three possible outcomes correspond to market trends:
·PCE exceeding expectations and rising: probability of rate hikes soars, U.S. bonds and the dollar rise, U.S. stocks growth, gold, and cryptocurrencies all come under pressure;
Data meeting expectations: the market fluctuates narrowly, high interest rates are hard to loosen, and a big rebound is unlikely;
Data cooling significantly: short-term benefits for growth stocks and gold, but only a short-term rebound, the big rate cut fantasy is gone.
3. Core viewpoints:
This round of inflation is sticky; even if the data falls this time, the Fed won't ease easily, and high interest rates will be maintained for a long time; limited room for rate hikes, and the huge U.S. debt cannot sustain continued large rate increases.
4. Trading ideas (for reference only): avoid heavy positions before data releases; avoid overvalued assets when negative news hits; reduce positions on rebounds when positive news occurs, and do not expect a long-term bullish easing market.