Weekly Macro Outlook: US-Iran Talks Dominate Market Sentiment; Macro and Micro Data Drive Rationality

On June 22, this week’s market will mainly focus on the progress of the US-Iran talks and their subsequent impact. On Monday morning, news that the US-Iran talks had “broken down” triggered a wave of panic in the market. Then, after stocks such as SK Hynix opened and narrowed their losses, panic sentiment was eased. It is foreseeable that this week’s market will still mainly focus on the US-Iran negotiations and the evolution of the situation afterward. On the other hand, US PCE data and earnings reports from AI star stocks such as Micron will affect the market’s rational analysis of the AI investment boom.

At 04:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the results of its annual bank stress test;

At 20:30 on Thursday, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, US May core PCE price index year-on-year rate, US May personal spending month-on-month rate, US Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate—final estimate, US Q1 real personal consumption expenditures quarterly initial estimate, US Q1 real personal consumption expenditures quarterly final estimate, US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate—final estimate, US May core PCE price index month-on-month rate, US May durable goods orders month-on-month rate;

At 03:40 on Friday, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will speak;

At 06:30 on Friday, FOMC voting member for 2027 and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will speak;

At 23:30 on Friday, FOMC voting member for 2026 and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will speak.

Cerebras Systems (CBRS), the “Nvidia challenger” new stock, plans to release its Q1 earnings report after the market close in the United States on Tuesday, June 23, 2026. The market will focus on the company’s first set of results after the listing of this new chip darling. Market expectations are for a Q1 loss of $0.14 per share, supported by a $25 billion order backlog, but it also faces risks related to high valuation and execution.

Micron Technology (MU), a memory chip manufacturer, will release its quarterly earnings after the US stock market closes on Wednesday, June 24, and will become a key benchmark for gauging chip demand. The market will use this to observe whether demand is still accelerating in its growth. The company’s guidance calls for revenue of $33.5 billion, with a gross margin of about 81%. #特朗普Meme币涨7.9%