BTC spot price shock: the cost of inverted pricing is 20%. JPMorgan: miners are hit by a surge of power-outage forced sell-offs.

JPMorgan Chase’s latest report points out that Bitcoin’s market price has continued to stay below the average production cost of $78,000, resulting in worsening profitability for the mining industry. Facing operational pressure, listed mining companies sold more than 32,000 coins in the first quarter to maintain operations.

The once “lucrative mining” boom is gradually fading. In its latest report, JPMorgan Chase (JPMorgan Chase) warns that this year the profit environment for the Bitcoin mining industry has deteriorated sharply, because Bitcoin has been below the “estimated production cost” for 5 consecutive months. Miners are under increasingly heavy pressure; some even have been forced to shut down mining rigs or sell holdings to sustain operations.

An analysis team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, JPMorgan’s Managing Director, said that since the beginning of this year, the sensitivity of the Bitcoin network’s hash rate and mining difficulty to price fluctuations has risen rapidly.

Data shows that over the past 6 months, the beta coefficient (Beta, an indicator measuring how closely the two move together) of Bitcoin mining difficulty relative to price has climbed to 0.62. This means more miners are struggling at the edge of the “break-even point,” and can only frequently turn mining rigs on and off to control costs as the coin price fluctuates.

JPMorgan analysts said: “When Bitcoin falls below production costs, higher-cost mining operations are forced to shut down, causing a decline in total network hash rate; the system then adjusts by reducing mining difficulty. This phenomenon was evident in the second week of June, when mining difficulty fell by 10%, marking the second time this year that such a large drop has occurred.”

A wave of sell-offs by listed mining companies

JPMorgan estimates that the average production cost for one Bitcoin is about $78,000, which is roughly 20% higher than the current market price of $62,500.

Citing CoinShares’ Q1 mining report, analysts said that around 20% of Bitcoin miners are no longer able to maintain profitability. Just in the first quarter this year, listed mining companies sold more than 32,000 Bitcoins to cover operating expenses—exceeding the total sell-off amount for all of 2025.

Outlook: Extremely bearish conditions incubating a “turnaround opportunity”

Looking ahead, JPMorgan’s team believes that as long as the Bitcoin price continues to remain far below the $78,000 cost benchmark line, the sensitivity of hash rate to the coin price will stay at a high level. This suggests that in the future, Bitcoin’s total network hash rate and mining difficulty may undergo more frequent and larger adjustments.

However, based on historical experience, when market sentiment is generally pessimistic, it may also give rise to the next round of rebound opportunities.

JPMorgan believes that the extremely weak market sentiment at present may instead become a noteworthy “contrarian bullish signal” to watch.

Image source: Coin Metrics

• This article is reprinted with permission from: 《Block Guest》
• Original title: 《Bitcoin mining profitability deteriorates, miners sell off collectively, yet an “reversal signal” unexpectedly emerges?》
• Original author: Block Sister Mel