Today I spoke with a U.S.-based buy-side fund manager and整理了his views:

Non-farm payrolls mask white-collar layoffs (supported by data). Manufacturing + construction (including data center construction) continue to add jobs, but layoffs in tech/finance/legal/media white-collars are steadily rising in Challenger data. The total non-farm number looks good, but the structure has already裂开.
The essence of AI is actually “headcount replacement,” IMF/McKinsey estimates that AI will impact over 300 million jobs in the next five years, with U.S. white-collar workers bearing the brunt. Anthropic CEO is also warning about the junior white-collar job crisis, all confirming that: companies are trimming organizational structures sharply through AI Agents without sacrificing output.
Warsh idolizes Greenspan, and this detail is very critical. Greenspan’s style was aggressive rate cuts followed by aggressive rate hikes, not a dovish approach. If Warsh truly follows this path, the market’s pricing of him is completely wrong; people think he’s hawkish but controllable, but in reality, he might be more extreme. The market generally regards Kevin Warsh as a “predictable hawk,” but if deep down he worships Greenspan, that means he pursues “discretionary policy,” making decisions based on “the moment” (Discretionary Policy). Greenspan in 1994-1995, to prevent inflation risks, aggressively raised rates by 250 basis points over 14 months for a “preventive strike,” then quickly cut rates.
Current macro asset pricing has significant structural biases. The market blindly bets on rate cuts but ignores the substantial tightening of underlying liquidity:
The “long tail internal injury” of QT has not been priced in: Although the Fed’s cumulative balance sheet reduction of over $2.2 trillion has officially ended by the end of 2025, the previous prolonged high-rate runoff pace of $60 billion per month has a serious lag effect on liquidity drain. Currently, liquidity pressures in the shadow banking system and non-bank institutions are still spreading in the dark, and aftereffects are emerging.
Fed internal polarization: The path of monetary policy is far from the smooth scenario the market imagines. Among the 19 voting members, 9 predict that year-end interest rates will be higher than current levels, and internal factions are polarized to a boiling point.
Both the U.S. and Chinese economies are experiencing K-shaped divergence: AI infrastructure (computing power/storage/electricity) is in a bull market, while consumption/healthcare/traditional services are in a bear market. This gap will widen. Even if AI pulls back, sector rotation will no longer revert to old favorites. AI infrastructure (computing power, storage, electricity) has already become a “capital black hole” for the entire market. Under this paradigm shift, even if the AI sector experiences a temporary valuation correction, capital will never flow back into the traditional consumer or healthcare sectors lacking imagination, because their total factor productivity (TFP) growth rates are simply not in the same league.