2026 World Cup》Wallet’s Perfect-Prediction Arbitrage of 24 Million—Did Polymarket Falsify Again and Spark Another Storm?

The World Cup prediction market experienced a mysterious wallet withdrawal profit of $24 million, and the prediction platform also faced controversy over fraud, prompting industry insiders to examine transparency.

Three mysterious wallets made large withdrawals, and the market began to focus on the source of funds

Recently, abnormal trading records have appeared in the World Cup betting prediction market. According to on-chain data analysis provided by Lookonchain, multiple cryptocurrency wallets participating in World Cup betting have cumulatively withdrawn over $24 million in profits during the event, attracting high attention from the market and community.

Image source: X/@lookonchain Multiple cryptocurrency wallets involved in World Cup betting have cumulatively withdrawn over $24 million in profits during the event

Among them, the trading performance of three main wallets has been particularly discussed. These addresses showed extremely high win rates in multiple matches and gradually withdrew large sums of funds from the platform after the event ended. Since the scale of profits far exceeds the average level of typical users, some market observers have begun to question whether these transactions involve insider information, collusion, or other special factors.

There is currently no evidence indicating that these addresses are involved in illegal activities, but abnormal profit-making ability has become a focus of community discussion.

Polymarket controversy resurfaces, Wall Street Journal exposes marketing manipulation incident

In addition to the large profit-making wallets attracting attention, the prediction market platform Polymarket has recently become the focus of news due to another controversy.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Polymarket paid some content creators to promote the platform by showcasing simulated profit cases and trading stories. Some cases involved fictitious websites or packaged trading scenarios, which led to public suspicion about whether the marketing content might mislead users.

After the incident was exposed, the market began to re-examine the promotional methods of prediction market platforms and how they present investment risks and potential returns. Although the controversy is not directly related to the recent large profit addresses, the occurrence of these two events consecutively has once again brought the prediction market industry under scrutiny.

• Related news: Foreign media exposes fake videos on Polymarket, revealing influencers' deception, claiming "lying down and earning" is a scam

World Cup drives explosive growth in prediction markets

During the 2026 World Cup, a large influx of funds entered prediction markets. Trading volume for various event-related contracts—ranging from match outcomes, advancing teams, to champion titles—rapidly increased.

In recent years, prediction markets have gradually extended from political elections and economic data forecasts to sports events, entertainment activities, and financial market incidents. As one of the most globally watched sporting events, the World Cup naturally became one of the markets with the most concentrated funds and trading volume.

The large participation also made on-chain data more transparent. Major profit-makers, whale operations, and abnormal trading behaviors can often be quickly tracked and publicly discussed by communities and analysis agencies.

During this World Cup, several high-profit addresses became market focal points, prompting more people to study the trading patterns and capital flows within prediction markets.

• Further reading: 2026 World Cup Predictions — Foreign media use 7 AI models to predict the champion and dark horses, and the results are surprising!

Transparency and regulation issues in prediction markets continue to attract attention

As the scale of prediction markets continues to grow, issues of transparency and regulation have garnered increasing concern.

• Supporters believe that blockchain technology makes all transaction records publicly accessible and verifiable, making it easier to track fund flows and abnormal behaviors compared to traditional gambling markets.
• Opponents argue that when large sums of capital are concentrated in a few addresses, the market may still face information asymmetry, excessive price influence, or potential manipulation risks.

There is currently no evidence indicating that these profit addresses are involved in illegal activities, but the discussion reflects new challenges faced by the rapidly developing prediction market industry. How to improve market transparency, establish more comprehensive risk disclosure mechanisms, and ensure fair trading has gradually become an important issue for industry development.

• Related news: Anti-gambling movement opposes legalization! Former SEC chairman submits opinion letter to block CFTC from expanding prediction market regulation