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There are always many beginner friends who don't know how to find entry points for trading, making it feel like gambling. Today, Teacher King will explain this.
The essence of entry points is divided into two mature systems: oscillation high sell and low buy, and trend-based buy points (pullback low buy + breakout opening). By overlaying your previous sentiment indicators for long and short positions as risk control filters, you can avoid 90% of false signals and traps. I will break it down into standardized rules that you can directly copy:
Step 1: First determine the market environment (entering in the wrong mode will always result in losses)
First, see whether the candlestick chart shows a trending market or a ranging market; the two logics are completely opposite.
1. Uptrend judgment (mainly long positions, do not trade against the trend)
Two strict standards must be met simultaneously:
• Higher highs and higher lows in a wave, with pullbacks also forming higher lows
• Short-term moving averages (5/10/20) are in a bullish alignment, with prices staying above the moving averages
In an uptrend, avoid shorting at resistance levels, as the main force often fake-falls to lure shorts;
2. Downtrend judgment (mainly short positions, do not try to bottom fish against the trend)
Highs and lows keep moving downward, moving averages are in a bearish alignment, and most bullish candles are just rebounds to lure longs;
3. Range-bound box pattern judgment (80% of market conditions are ranging)
Price bounces between fixed upper and lower bounds more than 3 times, Bollinger Bands tighten, highs and lows are flat, and 80% of breakouts in range are false breakouts to trap or lure traders. Don’t chase breakouts; high sell and low buy have the highest win rate.
Step 2: Three safe entry points (ranked from highest to lowest probability)
1. Trend pullback low buy (highest win rate, first choice to avoid traps, mainstream buy point for experienced traders)
Principle: a wave of rise causes a shakeout and pullback, with the main force clearing retail traders’ floating positions before pushing higher. Don’t chase the top, perfectly avoiding high-level traps.
Three layers of precise entry filtering (missing any one means no position):
a. Location: precise to support zones, choose one of three (reliability decreases):
① Strongest: previous resistance levels that have been broken through (resistance turns support, strongest protection by the main force)
② Next: 10/20 moving averages (dynamic trend support)
③ Backup: Fibonacci 38.2%/50% retracement levels, but not below 61.8% (trend likely weakening)
b. Volume: pullback must be with decreasing volume
Decreasing selling volume during decline = exhaustion of selling pressure; large volume drop during decline = capital fleeing, which is a trend reversal, not a shakeout. Absolutely avoid chasing.
c. Candlestick stabilization signals:
Hammer, doji, bullish engulfing at support, or closing back above support indicate stabilization.
Combine with your sentiment indicators for risk control (core to avoid traps).
If the pullback reaches support but retail long positions remain extremely high (blue bars not shrinking), it indicates floating positions are not cleaned out, and the main force may continue to push down to lure shorts. Delay entry; wait until retail longs are squeezed out, blue bars decrease, and positions are cleaned before entering.
Stop loss: below the lowest point of the stabilization candlestick by 3%–5%; if broken, exit immediately.
2. Breakout opening (catch new trends, most prone to false breakouts, must strictly confirm rules)
Many lose money by chasing a breakout on a single bullish candle during intraday; the main force often inserts a long upper shadow to trap traders. Remember, do not rely on intraday prices—use closing prices plus volume confirmation. The exclusive “33 Law” in crypto to prevent scams:
Four iron laws of true breakout; missing any one is a false breakout:
1. Volume must continuously increase: breakout volume exceeds 1.5 times the 5-day average; the next two candles should not quickly shrink volume; a spike in volume followed by immediate collapse indicates main force dumping to trap traders.
2. Only closing above the breakout level counts: the candle’s real body must close firmly above resistance; intraday shadows do not count, avoiding fake-out traps.
3. Validation of stability: after breakout, at least 2 candles’ closing prices do not fall back below resistance, or the price breakout is ≥1%, filtering out false spikes.
4. Location filtering: reliable breakouts are those after more than 15 horizontal candles at low levels; a high-level breakout after a 50% surge is 90% likely a trap to dump or trap.
Sentiment indicator filtering:
Initially, retail longs increase slowly during a breakout, not instantly all long; if on the breakout day the long-short ratio hits maximum, it’s a main force trap to lure retail traders. Abandon entry.
Two breakout entry methods:
• Aggressive: confirm closing above the level, small position at the end of the day to test
• Conservative: wait for a pullback after the breakout without breaking the level before entering (highest win rate, avoid all false breakouts, earn less at the start)
Stop loss: below the lowest point of the breakout candle.
3. Range-bound high sell and low buy (the only correct way in sideways markets)
The upper and lower bounds of the box are strong chip zones. Rules:
1. Near the lower support of the box: close with a bullish candle to go long, stop loss below the lower boundary.
2. Near the upper resistance of the box: close with a top signal to short, stop loss above the upper boundary.
3. Taboo: do not open positions in the middle of the box; no signals at the upper or lower bounds mean no trades.
4. Pitfall avoidance: any shadow piercing the boundary inside the box is a trap—counter-trend trading has a very high win rate.
Sentiment indicator usage:
Extreme retail long positions at the upper boundary signal a top to short; extreme retail short positions at the lower boundary signal a bottom to go long—operate inversely to sentiment.
Step 3: Turn your sentiment indicators into risk control filters (not primary signals)
Remember the positioning: candlestick + volume + structure determine whether to open a position; sentiment ratio determines whether to open a position. Both conditions must be met:
Long entry risk control:
If support is stable / true breakout structure is confirmed → check sentiment: retail longs are not at extreme levels, then enter; if retail traders are all long, abandon to avoid traps.
Short entry risk control:
If resistance shows stagnation / true breakdown structure is confirmed → retail shorts are not at extreme levels, then enter; if retail traders are collectively shorting, likely a trap to induce short squeeze.
Step 4: Three iron rules to prevent losses (must follow in crypto contracts)
1. Never open a position without a stop loss; unpredictable spikes can occur even at perfect levels.
2. Don’t guess bottoms or tops: during declines, wait for stabilization candlestick; during rises, wait for close confirmation.
3. Use the big cycle to determine direction, small cycle to find entry points: daily chart for trend direction, 1h/15min for precise entries; trade in the direction of the daily trend to double win rate.
Minimalist quick tips:
Trend pullback with volume shrinking and stabilization, then follow with volume expansion and close;
In ranging markets, act on boundary signals;
Shadows piercing boundaries are traps—always prioritize stop loss.
Master these, and you’ll understand the most basic entry skills.