Good morning everyone～

The biggest variable in the market this weekend is still the situation between the U.S. and Iran.

Many people originally thought that after both sides signed the memorandum, the subsequent negotiations would gradually move forward, but they didn’t expect new variables to arise again. The issue of the Strait of Hormuz has escalated once more. Both sides’ attitudes have clearly turned stronger. The market is worried that the situation might further deteriorate, so risk-off sentiment has surged again.

Based on the current situation, although the U.S. and Iran have not completely fallen out yet, there is still a long way to go before they truly reach a comprehensive consensus. Especially for core issues such as regional conflicts and asset unfreezing, it is not realistic to resolve everything in one go in the short term.

For the market, what matters most now is not who said what, but whether there will be substantial progress afterward. As long as the situation does not clearly ease, funds will most likely stay cautious.

Recently, there hasn’t been any obvious rebound or inflow in ETF funds either. Institutions overall remain in a wait-and-see mode, so it’s not easy for the market to break out of a sustained upward trend in the short term.

So don’t think too complicatedly this week—just keep watching two directions:
One is whether there is new progress in the U.S.-Iran situation; the other is whether institutional funds have started flowing back into the market.

Until these two factors show clear changes, I personally still maintain my previous view: the broader market looks more like it’s consolidating and ranging, rather than directly choosing a direction.

From the weekly perspective, we are still in a range-bound oscillation phase between 60000 and 67000, and there hasn’t been a real turning-point signal yet.

For trading, it’s still the old approach: focus on short-term trades and swing trades, and patiently wait for the market to give a clear direction.

BTC: watch 64000-66000;
ETH: watch 1700-1770;
SOL: watch 72-76.
$SOL ‌$ETH ‌$BTC