On Monday’s open, global markets saw a slight shudder: oil prices jumped, with U.S. crude opening nearly 2% higher, and Brent crude opening up 3%. The U.S. Dollar Index also gapped higher, probing toward the 101 level. Meanwhile, gold, U.S. stock futures, and U.S. Treasuries fell in sync, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose to the 4.48% level.

First, the rise in oil prices was entirely a stress reaction to the “lack of substantive progress in Sunday’s Swiss talks” and the possibility that the situation in the Strait could escalate. According to Bloomberg, the negotiations are still ongoing, so the overall move in oil prices has been relatively restrained. It is expected that around the U.S. stock market open, Trump will release a large amount of news. Iranian media (Fars News Agency) reported that Iran paused the talks due to Trump’s latest threats, but Bloomberg, citing sources, said the negotiations are still continuing. The talks began at 2:45 p.m. local time, and Switzerland will keep the meeting venue until Monday morning (that is, this afternoon to this evening Beijing time), so that the negotiations can continue if necessary. Also, according to Fox, Trump said that if necessary, the United States might take over the Strait of Hormuz and charge tolls. Trump also stated that he had told Iran’s leaders directly that if they block the Strait of Hormuz, “you won’t even be able to get back to Iran,” and he used profanity.

Second, the strengthening U.S. dollar simultaneously weighed on gold, U.S. stock futures, and U.S. Treasuries, because on Friday the market further increased its bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. The biggest event this week is the release of the U.S. May core PCE price index on Thursday—an inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve. Markets expect both the month-over-month and year-over-year increases to rise. Therefore, there will be a round of advance feedback before the data is released. Today’s real price action may not have started yet; the open is more like an “emotional probe.” Because what determines the direction of the market is not the Asian session, but the final outcome of the Swiss talks (whether a joint statement is issued, an extension is announced, or it ends without goodwill), Trump’s next remarks, whether new threats emerge in the Strait of Hormuz, and the barrage of news before and during the U.S. trading session. The true showdown of institutional funds will indeed have to wait until the European session opens, or even until the main players enter ahead of the U.S. session. So, this Monday’s opening move is more like a “small tremor.”