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June 22 Monday Afternoon Market Analysis
The first round of high-level negotiations between the US and Iran has concluded, with both sides setting a plan to reach a final agreement within 60 days and establishing a supervisory committee. Next, the technical team will continue to refine the details, and Lebanon's ceasefire is a priority.
Influenced by the news, Bitcoin still experienced a symbolic rebound, but the momentum was moderate. Yesterday, the article reminded that short positions could be attempted above 64,000. It originally smoothly declined to around 63,000, but this morning, due to news impacts, it pulled back to the cost basis.
Currently, Bitcoin's structure still remains a bearish pattern.
From the announcement of the US and Iran reaching an agreement last week to the signing of the memorandum of understanding finalizing a deal within 60 days, the overall impact has been moderate, and this round of market funds did not show significant inflow.
On the macro level, last week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision dot plot released a strong hawkish signal, increasing the probability of rate hikes this year.
This has already been obvious; since the beginning of the month, I have been emphasizing that inflation issues and rate decisions would negatively impact the market.
The rebound after dropping below 60,000 this month was also expected, but the rebound lacks any new themes to support it. It’s entirely due to low prices and the influence of junk topics like Iran and the US. The bearish structure has not changed at all.
BTC trading suggestion: Short around 64,500, take profit at 63,800-62,800, stop loss at 65,500, profits can be taken at any time without sticking to the pattern.
ETH trading suggestion: Short between 1,740-1,770, take profit at 1,720-1,680, stop loss at 1,800.