$GT June 22 BTC/ETH Market Morning Report--Exhausted Bullish Momentum, Large Short Position Imminent

Weekend market movements were relatively mild, oscillating within the range of 63,000 to 64,500, the weekend article suggested short positions around Bitcoin 64,800–65,500 and 1,760–1,780, but did not provide an entry opportunity. The short positions around 63,900–64,500 and 1,738–1,755 from last Friday are currently slightly in profit. So, just hold patiently for now. The weekly outlook remains unchanged with a high short bias, details as follows:
Fundamentals:
Currently, US-Iran relations have shifted from "ceasefire good news" to "high-risk negotiation mode," any signs of negotiation breakdown could trigger a new round of panic. US-Iran talks have been tossed back and forth multiple times; hopefully peace will be restored soon!
The latest Fed SEP dot plot shows that out of 19 policymakers, 9 expect at least a 25 basis point rate hike before the end of 2026, with 6 expecting two hikes. This is a 180-degree reversal from the March dot plot’s "one rate cut within the year." Market bets on a July rate hike have surged again to 41.7% (see chart below).
This will suppress price rally momentum, and the market may see panic selling afterward. Everyone, whether long or short, should participate with light positions during this period!
Technical Analysis:
Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score is at 0.36, still some distance from the severely undervalued <0 level, indicating the market has not reached an extremely pessimistic state. Historical data shows that each cycle’s major bottom MVRV values are in the range of -0.3 to -0.6, which is the best time to bottom fish. Patience is still needed.
Bitcoin’s chart shows a bear flag pattern, which has already broken below the bear flag bottom. The weekend rebound touched the upper resistance of the bear flag, which is one of the reasons I believe the recent rally is unlikely to break through (see chart below).
The daily chart shows a bearish alignment of moving averages, with insufficient upward momentum. Even the 21-day moving average has not been touched recently. The MACD histogram shows waning momentum, and yesterday’s price closed below the Bollinger middle band. Resistance levels are heavy, so a high short position following the trend is relatively safer. Refer to the support/resistance levels below for phased short entries.
Bitcoin:
Watch the resistance around 64,400–64,900–65,500, with targets below at 63,200–62,200–59,800–58,000–54,000.
Ethereum:
Watch the resistance around 1,740–1,760–1,780–1,820, with targets below at 1,680–1,640–1,580–1,510–1,444.
Note: Be cautious with entry and exit points, keep positions light. Spread points: Bitcoin ±100 points, Ethereum ±5 points. The above is solely my personal opinion. Please trade cautiously, profits and losses are your own responsibility! #我的Gate交易时刻 #美伊谈判推迟 #预测世界杯西班牙VS沙特