Yang Guang bit | June 22 $BTC Precise Strategy Full Trend Control

Core Conclusion
BTC has experienced a strong rebound after hitting the low of 62281, with short-term oversold funds concentrated on bottom-fishing sentiment release, but the pressure from the historical dense trap zone at 67000-67300 is huge. This round of rebound is a technical correction, and the large-scale downtrend has not been fully reversed. Combining the easing of geopolitical expectations + large on-chain capital movements, short-term bulls and bears are increasingly competing. The operation mainly adopts a low-buy approach, with phased layout of short positions at high levels, and a range-bound oscillation strategy.
Today’s Strategy
Entry Timing
Short at 65300-65600 after rebound;
Buy the dip at 66000-66300.
Stop-loss setting: above 66600
Tiered Take Profit
First target: 64300-64500
Second target: 63800-64000
Third target: 63500-62800
Market Logic Breakdown
1. News (Geopolitical Core)
Expectations of easing US-Iran negotiations have reignited, market risk aversion sentiment has decreased, and funds are flowing back into risk assets, which is the core driver of this round of BTC oversold rebound.
The expectation of de-escalation in Middle East conflicts has increased, the US dollar index has weakened in the short term, providing a valuation repair window for cryptocurrencies;
The Fed’s rate cut expectation remains delayed, and macro pressure in the medium to long term still exists. This rebound is only a sentiment correction and does not have a foundation for sustained large-scale upward movement;
No sudden extreme negative news, but geopolitical benefits are only short-term pulse effects. After the benefits are fully priced in, funds and technical factors will still dominate.
2. On-chain & Capital Data
Exchanges continue to see high outflows of BTC, with low-level chips transferred to cold wallets for long-term accumulation. Support at 63000-62000 is solid, and the short-term downside space is locked;
US spot BTC ETF shows a slight inflow, institutions are bottom-fishing in the short term, but the net inflow scale is limited, and no trend of increased positions has formed;
Derivatives market: After the sharp decline, long leverage was heavily liquidated. This rebound was driven by retail bottom-fishing + passive short covering. Above 66000, there is heavy trapped volume, and selling pressure at the high is very strong;
Large transfers increased over 24 hours, major holders are taking profits in batches during the rebound, and hidden selling pressure at high levels continues. $BTC ‌#美伊谈判第一轮结束