#美伊谈判第一轮结束

Waking up, Trump’s one sentence overturned the Swiss negotiation table—right where it suited Netanyahu best

On June 22, after waking up, the US–Iran situation took a sharp turn for the worse. With a single sentence, U.S. President Trump overturned the negotiation table that Switzerland had painstakingly gathered.

According to reports from major media platforms, just last night Beijing time, Trump suddenly posted on a social media platform: “Iran must immediately stop the high-paid agents it employs in Lebanon from causing trouble. Otherwise, we will strike Iran again, just like last week—and with even greater force!!!”

When people saw this message, it’s fair to say that anyone was stunned—almost the entire world was stunned.

Trump’s remarks clearly distort the truth. First of all, it should be Israel that is warned—Netanyahu—not Iran. It is Israel that violates the ceasefire agreement, not Lebanon, and not Iran. It is the United States that needs to honor its commitments—not Trump, who flips the narrative and uses warnings to tell Iran to rein in Hezbollah in Lebanon. As things stand, the person who is most pleased by Trump’s kind of warning is Netanyahu—he is the one who most hopes the United States and Iran will fight again.

Second, if warnings work, then why are the United States and Iran still sitting down to negotiate? Why sign memoranda of understanding in the first place? Iran has never been afraid of U.S. warnings. Every warning only produces the opposite effect. Trump has already learned that lesson countless times.

After Trump’s warning was issued, the Iranian delegation that was holding US–Iran talks at Switzerland’s Bürgenstock Mountain suddenly suspended the negotiations as a protest against the threat remarks Trump made toward Iran that day.

According to Iranian media reports, the Iranian delegation lodged a protest with the U.S. side over Trump’s remarks and also left the venue. The report said negotiations that had already been underway for 80 minutes were paused, and the delegation shifted to internal consultations. It was reported that Iran is currently working out an appropriate response plan.

So why did Trump publish a wrong statement threatening Iran at such a time—at the key moment when the United States and Iran had finally managed to return to the negotiating table?

The Watchtower Observation Room believes there are three major reasons. The first is that in the United States, Trump has repeatedly been criticized for being too soft on Iran, and some even accused him of suffering a major defeat.

The most typical example is Jeffrey—the minority leader of the U.S. House of Representatives—who, on the 19th, directly blasted Trump on X, saying: “The war in the Middle East launched by the Republicans has completely failed.”

The New York Times even published an editorial directly attacking Trump, with an eye-catching headline: “President Trump Lost This War.”

The editorial said Trump made serious mistakes in launching the war. It accused Trump of acting recklessly, pushing for war, and openly disregarding the law—at the cost of strategic repercussions for years to come.

The editorial claimed Iran is the strategic winner of this four-month war. Democrats such as Pelosi criticized Trump for tearing up Obama’s agreement, only to end up with a failed one; the US–Iran memorandum is a document of surrender. There are also Democrats calling for accountability for Trump’s responsibility for launching the war.

Facing these critical voices, Trump is under heavy pressure. He tries to take a harder line against Iran to somehow salvage these criticisms—but in reality, Trump is too naive and simply cannot change the views of Democrats and other critics, even if he is tough on Iran.

The second major reason is that Trump simply cannot manage Netanyahu. Previously, Trump had publicly accused and criticized Netanyahu multiple times, but Israel has clearly said it will not withdraw troops and will not cease fire. From then on, Trump never made any tough statements toward Israel, and he did not mediate on the ceasefire—almost as if he let things be. Instead, he issued harsh warnings to Iran.

The third reason is the issue of the midterm elections. Trump’s approval rating has hit the lowest point since his second term. He is also facing criticism from all directions at home: rising oil prices, major losses suffered by the U.S. military, and accusations that Trump is relatively soft toward Iran.

In fact, the reason Trump is in this situation today is mainly because Netanyahu has tricked and played him. From the start, this war meant Trump was destined to fail. If he continues fighting, he will still be criticized by Democrats; if he does not fight and signs the memorandum of understanding, he still gets criticized. In the end, everything becomes just a pretext for Democrats to attack Trump and get him out of office.

Jeffrey, the minority leader of the U.S. House of Representatives, directly criticized: “Oil prices are rising, Iran’s strength is increasing, U.S. security is worsening, and more than $100 billion in taxpayer money is being wasted. There will be a change of power in Congress in November.”

There are reports that the American public may abandon the Republican Party in the November elections.

As for Trump’s warning issued on June 21, Iran’s negotiating team not only immediately halted the talks. Iran’s delegation leader, Kalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Islamic Parliament, responded on social media right away, saying: “They’d better watch their words carefully. Our armed forces are ready to respond in different ways.”

In fact, the Observation Room believes Iran’s response is not an overreaction—it is the necessary response it must make.

First, throughout the entire war, Iran has been the victim. It is the U.S. and Israel that violated international law and brazenly launched an invasion against Iran. Now they are asserting their rights. Iran’s sovereignty, security, and development interests have been harmed, and it must safeguard those rights at any cost.

Second, the Iranian delegation also faces intense pressure domestically. At the same time as this memorandum of understanding was signed, there were many voices in Iran criticizing it—some even claimed that this memorandum is a surrender agreement.

In this situation, the United States not only did not rein in Israel, but instead turned around and warned Iran. Under these circumstances, Iran must show some performance and take a certain stance. Otherwise, the critical voices within Iran will only grow stronger.

Regarding this incident, Lebanon’s “Square” TV reported that Iran’s response is very clear: unless Trump apologizes for his threat remarks, and unless Israeli forces withdraw from southern Lebanon, the Iranian delegation will not return to the negotiation table.

However, some geopolitical analysts have long argued that throughout the entire fighting process, it would have been more conducive to resolving many issues if Trump had managed his mouth better. As of now, this line seems extremely targeted!
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