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Based on history, group consensus has always existed. The rule, in essence, is that it inflates a bubble and then bursts it.
This is the rule!
What cannot be determined is how large the bubble of group consensus will be, and how long it will last.
In history, several rounds of group consensus have lasted anywhere from 16 months at the shortest to 30 months at the longest.
And this round of AI bubble group consensus—counting from after 9/24/2024 (October)—has already been going on for about 22 months. It has already exceeded the median, but it hasn’t reached the extreme end of the historical group-consensus durations!