Based on Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action Analysis of BTC Short-term Trends

$BTC ‌1. Dow Theory
Main Trend (1-hour level): The medium-term downtrend from the high point of 82,430 on May 10 remains ongoing, but recent significant reversal signals have appeared. After panic selling to 59,095 on June 5, a strong rebound occurred on June 7–8, reaching as high as 64,186. On June 9, "gap opening, decline with increased volume" from 63,454 straight down to 60,783, followed by continued decline to 60,828 (a new low since the rebound) in the morning of June 10, but a V-shaped rebound to 62,747 in the afternoon. On June 11, a stronger upward push reached 63,775. June 12–13 saw high-level oscillation, then June 14–15 pushed higher to 67,225, but June 16–18 experienced three consecutive days of sharp decline, dropping to 62,238 on June 18, then a slight rebound to 62,894 on June 19, and stabilization with a close at 63,850 from June 20–22. Although the medium-term downtrend has not fully reversed, the lows since June 5 (59,095 → 60,828 → 62,238) are gradually rising, indicating weakening downward momentum, and the rebound on June 22 has surpassed the high of June 21, showing bulls are regaining strength.
Short-term trend (15-minute level): From June 16–22, the movement shows a "rise and fall + deep correction + stabilization rebound" oscillation. On June 16, after opening at 66,289, the price oscillated with a high of 66,928. Starting June 17, it began to correct, with panic selling on June 18 from 64,420 down to 62,238, then a slight rebound to 62,894 on June 19, and stabilization with a high of 63,950 from June 20–22. The short-term high points moved from 67,254 (6/15) down to 66,928 (6/16), then to 65,507 (end of 6/16), 64,038 (6/17), and 62,238 (6/18 low). The short-term lows moved from 62,238 (6/18) up to 62,254 (6/19), 62,500 (6/20), and 63,200 (6/22). While the highs are still declining, the lows are rising significantly, indicating a shift from a downtrend to a sideways, slightly bullish trend.
Dow conclusion: The primary trend remains downward, but the downward momentum is significantly weakening (lows rising). The short-term trend is shifting from decline to sideways bullish. The rebound on June 22 has broken above the high of June 20 (63,514), returning the market to a bullish oscillation. The key resistance above is around 64,500–65,000 (near the previous high of 64,038 before the crash on June 17). If the price can break through this level effectively, the short-term downtrend will be confirmed as reversed; if the rebound is blocked at 64,500 and falls below 63,000, the downtrend continues, targeting the 62,238–60,828 range.
2. Chan Theory
Structure of Fractals: On the daily chart, multiple valid top and bottom fractals are marked.
Top Fractals: Appear at 82,430 (May 10), 82,006 (May 14), 67,243 (June 15), 66,928 (June 16), etc. The top fractals on June 15–16 show a significant downward shift from around 82,000 to 67,000, indicating the bearish force is recovering.
Bottom Fractals: Appear at 59,095 (June 5), 60,828 (June 10), 62,238 (June 18), 62,254 (June 19), 63,200 (June 22), etc. The bottom fractals from June 18–22 show a significant upward shift from around 59,000 to 62,000–63,200, indicating bullish willingness is recovering.
Bi and Line Segments: From the bottom fractal at 60,828 to the top fractal at 67,243 (June 15), a very strong upward stroke (~6,415) was formed. Then from 67,243 to the bottom fractal at 62,238 (June 18), a downward stroke (~5,005) was formed, about 78% of the upward stroke, indicating a strong correction. Subsequently, from 62,238 to the top fractal at 63,850 (June 22), an upward stroke (~1,612) was formed, about 32% of the previous downward stroke, showing bulls are regaining strength but not yet dominant.
Central Zone: In the 62,800–63,200 range, the K-lines from June 19–22 are densely interwoven, forming a new central zone (per Chan Theory). The current price at 63,850 is above this zone, in a testing phase after breaking through. In the 66,000–66,500 range, the dense K-line activity on June 14–16 formed an upward central zone, but the sharp decline on June 17–18 broke this zone, accelerating the decline phase. In the 63,000–65,000 range, the dense K-line activity from June 11–14 formed a central zone, and the current price is approaching its lower boundary.
Chan conclusion: The upward stroke is extremely strong (+6,415), but the downward stroke is also strong (-5,005). The current upward stroke is weaker (+1,612), indicating intense bulls and bears struggle. The market is in a high-level oscillation after the upward stroke extension, with no termination signals yet. Watch closely whether 63,850 can form an effective top fractal; if formed, the upward stroke may end. If the price directly breaks above 64,500, the upward stroke extends, risking a rise to 65,000–67,000.
3. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on daily wave structure, the movement since the high of 82,430 on May 10 is divided into typical "five-wave decline + ABC rebound + correction + rebound" pattern:
Wave 1 (Crash): From 82,430 down to 75,826 (May 26), about -6,604.
Wave 2 (Rebound): From 75,826 up to 77,280 (May 26), about +1,454.
Wave 3 (Main decline): From 77,280 down to 66,704 (June 2), about -10,576.
Wave 4 (Rebound): From 66,704 up to 74,154 (May 31), about +7,450.
Wave 5 (Final crash): From 74,154 down to 59,095 (June 5), about -15,059.
A Wave (Rebound): From 59,095 up to 64,186 (June 8), about +5,091.
B Wave (Correction): From 64,186 down to 60,828 (June 10), about -3,358. The correction is about 65.9% of A wave, a typical retracement.
C Wave (Expansion): From 60,828 up to 67,225 (June 15), about +6,397. The current amplitude (~1,612) is about 32.3% of C wave's correction, a weak rebound.
C Wave correction: From 67,225 down to 62,238 (June 18), about -4,987, a deep correction (~77.9% of C wave rise).
C Wave rebound: From 62,238 up to 63,850 (June 22), about +1,612, a weak rebound (~32.3% of C correction).
Wave conclusion: Currently in a weak rebound stage after ABC C wave completion and deep correction. The C wave was very strong (+6,397) but the correction was also large (-4,987), so the rebound is weak (+1,612). If the rebound breaks 64,500 and continues upward past 67,225, C wave extends with targets around 68,000–70,000; if it stalls at 64,500 and falls below 62,238, C wave fails, and the downward impulsive wave begins, targeting 60,000–59,000.
4. Volume-Price Relationship
Overall volume-price features: On June 18, a highly negative volume-price pattern appeared. During the sharp decline, volume surged sharply; during the rebound, volume contracted; during the late decline, volume remained high. The volume during the decline was heavy and increasing, indicating strong bearish force. From June 19–22, the pattern shifted to volume contraction with stabilization and mild rebound, showing bearish exhaustion.
Key volume-price nodes:
- June 16: A volume spike with a bearish candle (volume 25.1 billion), from 66,289 to 65,601, confirming high-level selling pressure.
- June 18: An extremely high volume bearish candle (volume 30.4 billion), from 64,420 down to 62,896, confirming bearish explosion and panic selling.
- June 19: A volume contraction bullish candle (volume 24 billion), from 62,883 up slightly to 62,894, confirming bearish exhaustion.
- June 20: Mild volume bullish candle (volume 26 billion), from 62,894 up to 63,514, indicating bulls testing the waters.
- June 21: Volume consolidation (volume 22 billion), from 63,514 slightly down to 63,420, indicating balanced forces.
- June 22: Mild volume bullish candle (volume 21 billion), from 63,420 up to 63,850, confirming bulls regaining strength.
Recent 7-day volume-price pattern: From 67,254 oscillating down to 62,238 and rebounding to 63,850, with a pattern of "sharp volume surge + contraction + stabilization with mild volume," market awaits direction in the 63,000–64,000 zone.
Volume-price conclusion: The massive volume during June 18’s crash indicates very strong bearish force. The subsequent contraction and mild rebound from June 19–22 suggest bearish exhaustion. Key observation points: If the rebound near 64,500–65,000 shows volume stagnation, it confirms the end of C wave rebound; if volume surges below 62,500 during decline, a downward impulsive wave may begin.
5. Order Flow
Volume Profile: Over the last 7 days (June 16–22), the Point of Control (POC) is at 63,400, the area with the densest trading, forming the current key value zone. The current price at 63,850 is slightly above POC, indicating a slight bullish bias in the short term.
Current analysis: Price at 63,850 is about 450 above POC, in the above-value zone but with small deviation. In order flow theory, being above POC suggests short-term buyers have a slight advantage, and the market is recovering from a discounted state to a slight premium. The current price is approaching higher value zones, with significant resistance near 64,500.
High Volume Nodes (HVN):
- 67,000–67,500: Strong resistance HVN (from the high point after June 15 rebound, currently a major resistance zone)
- 65,000–66,000: Secondary resistance HVN (from June 14–16 volume cluster)
- 63,500–64,000: Core HVN (around POC, current support zone)
- 62,000–62,500: Support HVN (from the massive volume during June 18–19 crash)
- 60,500–61,000: Strong support HVN (from the massive volume after June 10 crash)
Delta analysis: During the June 18 crash, Delta sharply turned negative (~-5 billion), confirming active selling. During June 19–22 stabilization and mild rebound, Delta slightly turned positive (+0.5–1 billion), confirming bearish exhaustion. Currently, Delta MA12 has risen back near zero, indicating buying strength is recovering, and selling pressure is weakening.
Order flow conclusion: Price above POC at 63,400, with a slight short-term bullish bias. Resistance at 64,500 and 65,000 HVNs, with continued positive Delta and volume increase, could push toward 67,000. If Delta remains negative and price falls below 63,000, C wave may fail.
6. Price Action
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Strong Resistance: 82,430 (high point), 78,003 (May 26 rebound high), 74,154 (May 31 rebound high), 67,225 (June 15 rebound high)
- Key Resistance: 65,600 (June 16 close), 64,500 (psychological level), 64,038 (pre-crash high on June 17), 63,775 (June 11 rebound high)
- Key Support: 63,000 (psychological level), 62,500 (June 20 low), 62,238 (June 18 crash low), 61,500 (June 11 morning low), 60,828 (June 10 crash low), 59,095 (June 5 crash low)
Candlestick patterns:
- June 15: A large bullish candle with long upper shadow (body 601, upper shadow 941), from 65,714 to 66,315, peaking at 67,254, indicating bullish momentum with high resistance, forming a "shooting star" warning.
- June 18: A large bearish candle with long body (body -1,524, lower shadow 234), from 64,420 down to 62,896, indicating strong bearish force, forming a "bearish engulfing" pattern.
- June 19: Doji (body 11), from 62,883 to 62,894, indicating market indecision.
- June 20: A bullish hammer with long lower shadow (body 620, lower shadow 156), from 62,894 to 63,514, showing bulls starting to recover, a "hammer" pattern.
- June 22: A bullish engulfing with long lower shadow (body 430, lower shadow 220), from 63,420 to 63,850, indicating continued bullish recovery.
Trend structure:
- Short-term: Downtrend channel (connecting 67,254, 65,507, 64,038, 62,238), but the recent stabilization and rebound on June 20–22 suggest a possible breakout.
- Mid-term: The downtrend since May 10 (82,430) persists, but the rising lows since June 5 (59,095) indicate weakening downward momentum.
Price action conclusion: Currently in a low-volatility oscillation after a sharp decline, with 64,500 as a critical dividing line: a break above may reverse the downtrend toward 65,000–66,000; a rejection and fall below 63,000 could test support at 62,500–62,238.
Overall assessment:
Dow Theory indicates the main trend remains downward but with weakening momentum (lows rising), and the short-term trend is shifting from decline to sideways bullish. Chan Theory shows strong upward strokes (+6,415) but also strong downward strokes (-5,005), with the current upward stroke weaker (+1,612), in a high-level oscillation. Elliott Wave confirms the five-wave decline completed, ABC rebound and C wave (~6,397) finished, followed by deep correction (~4,987) and weak rebound (~1,612). Volume-price signals show a massive volume during June 18 crash, then contraction and mild rebound, indicating bearish exhaustion. Order flow points to a POC at 63,400, with price above it, Delta MA12 near zero, suggesting short-term bullish bias. Price action shows "shooting star," "bearish engulfing," "doji," "hammer," and "bullish engulfing" patterns, with key resistance at 64,500 and support at 63,000.
Short-term strategy suggestions:
- Bullish scenario: If price stalls with decreasing volume near 63,000–63,500, forms a bottom fractal, and Delta turns positive, consider going long with targets at 64,500–65,000, stop at 62,500.
- Bearish scenario: If rebound near 64,500–65,000 shows fractal top with increasing volume and declines, confirming C wave failure and the start of a downward impulsive wave, consider short positions targeting 63,000–62,000, stop at 65,500.
Current state: At 63,850, in a low-volatility oscillation after a sharp decline, leaning slightly bullish. Wait for a confirmed break above 64,500 to reverse the trend or a break below 63,000 to continue the decline before entering positions.