Good morning everyone～

The biggest variable in the market this weekend is still the US–Iran situation.

Many people originally thought that after both sides signed the memorandum, the subsequent negotiations would gradually move forward—but unexpectedly, new variables have emerged again. The issue concerning the Strait of Hormuz has escalated once more. Both sides’ stances have clearly strengthened, and the market is worried that the situation might further deteriorate afterward, so risk-aversion sentiments have risen sharply again.

Based on the current situation, although the US and Iran have not completely broken down negotiations, there is still a long way to go before they can truly reach a comprehensive consensus. Especially for core issues such as regional conflicts and asset unfreezing, it’s not realistic to solve everything in one go in a short period of time.

For the market, what matters most now is not what anyone says, but whether there will be any substantive progress afterward. As long as the situation does not ease clearly, funds will most likely remain in a cautious state.

Recently, ETF fund flows have not shown any obvious rebound, and institutions overall are still relatively on the sidelines—so it’s not easy for the market to break out into a sustained uptrend in the short term.

So don’t overthink things this week. Just keep watching two directions:
One is whether there is new progress in the US–Iran situation; the other is whether institutional funds have returned to the market.

Until these two factors show clear changes, I personally still maintain my previous view: the overall market looks more like a range-bound consolidation than a direct choice of direction.

From the weekly timeframe, we are still in the 60,000–67,000 range trading phase, and there hasn’t been a true turning point signal yet.

For trading, stick to the old approach: focus on short-term trades and swing trades, and be patient while waiting for the market to provide a clear direction.

BTC focuses on the 64,000–66,000 range;
ETH focuses on the 1,700–1,770 range;
SOL focuses on the 72–76 range.
$SOL ‌$ETH ‌$BTC ‌