U.S. Stock Market Trends (June 22): The Hormuz Agreement Changes, and Thursday’s PCE Signals and Micron Chip Trajectory

By: Tide Research

Over the weekend, the Iran–U.S. agreement has already begun to wobble. On Saturday, Iran’s IRGC announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. On Sunday, the negotiating delegation walked out in anger after threats issued by Trump. The Iran–U.S. talks in Switzerland are currently still suspended. All three major U.S. stock index futures were broadly lower ahead of the open, the geopolitical premium is starting to build up again, and the direction of the negotiations is the most direct pricing variable for today’s open.

Market Performance

Last week, chip stocks were the main line for the entire week. On Thursday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hit a historical high for the week. The hawkish FOMC move was overshadowed by the Iran–U.S. signing, and the S&P rose 0.9% for the week. SpaceX completed its stock listing debut and gained 37% in total, but it then ended with two consecutive red days, and the exposure of a $20 billion bond issuance plan has ended the honeymoon period. Accenture plunged 18% on Thursday, the worst large-cap blue-chip performance in the market last week.

Macro and Outlook

The latest status of the Iran–U.S. negotiations: the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. On Sunday, Iran’s delegation left the meeting due to protests over Trump’s threatening remarks. U.S. media reports say Iranian personnel are still in contact with the U.S., but in substance, negotiations have effectively been paused. Iran’s condition is for Israel to stop its military actions in Lebanon, while Trump has publicly warned that he may take over Hormuz toll collection and has threatened even stronger strikes. Both sides are applying pressure, and the progress of negotiations before today’s open is the most direct pricing variable for oil prices and energy stocks.

On Monday, Marvell and Flex will be added to the S&P 500, effective immediately. Most passive fund weights aligning was completed before the close last Friday. Today’s open will involve residual portfolio rebalancing—watch the liquidity premiums of these two stocks in the first few minutes of trading.

On Tuesday, the MSCI annual market classification review will be released. If South Korea enters the developed market watchlist, hundreds of billions in passive funds will drive semiconductor ETFs. SK Hynix ADR applications are expected to be approved by the SEC as early as this week. The directions benefiting from these two items are consistent, and the storage sector will form a resonance.

Thursday, June 25, is the heaviest day of the week, with the May PCE data and Micron’s earnings report landing on the same day. The year-over-year outlook for core PCE is expected to rise from 3.3% to 3.4%. Deutsche Bank has forecast that there will be two rate hikes totaling 50 basis points this year, with the earliest move as soon as July. If the PCE data is hot, the September rate hike will shift from probability to consensus, and the more hawkish tone will be backed by the data. If the data is soft, the speed at which rate-cut expectations are repriced will exceed anyone’s expectations.

Micron’s earnings are the most direct litmus test for this week’s AI narrative. Wall Street currently expects its Q3 revenue to be about $34.5 billion, EPS to be about $19.72, and gross margin to be about 81%. For the full year, customers have already locked HBM capacity through the end of 2026 and extended it into early 2027. What the market is most focused on this time is the visibility of HBM supply in 2027, the progress of HBM4 ramping into mass production, and whether Micron can hold its share within NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin supply chain. Micron has confirmed that it has been included as a certified Vera Rubin HBM4 supplier—this is the biggest narrative upgrade from the previous quarter. Any wording about capacity constraints or conservative guidance will be amplified by shorts, especially since the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has just hit a historical high and has very low tolerance.

NVIDIA’s shareholder meeting will be held in the early hours Beijing time. The ramp-up of production for the Blackwell and Vera architectures is the core focus. Any statements below expectations will directly hit the logic of AI capital expenditures. OpenAI GPT-5.6 is expected to debut this week. As the narrative moves from models to executable agents, if it overlaps with Micron’s earnings and NVIDIA’s shareholder meeting, Thursday will be the most densely packed 24 hours for the AI narrative this week.

On Friday, the Russell Reconstitution takes effect at the close, and small-cap volatility will be systematically elevated.

Tide Research Perspective

Last week’s answer is temporary—this week is the real test of the pricing framework. Two lines are running at the same time: the geopolitics line watching whether Iran–U.S. negotiations can restart, and the AI line watching Micron’s guidance and NVIDIA’s capacity. Chip stocks hit historical highs last week; whether that level can be maintained depends on the outcome of two data releases delivering answers at the same time on Thursday. Deutsche Bank has effectively capitulated to the “Wosh” view, forecasting a 50 basis point rate hike within the year. If PCE is again on the hot side and Micron provides conservative guidance, the stocks that rose the most last week will be the ones that fall the deepest this week. If both deliver the answers the market wants, the pricing framework for the AI narrative will be reestablished, and this week’s volatility will be the entry window.