This week's macro outlook: US-Iran talks dominate market sentiment, macro and micro data lead market rationality

BlockBeats News, June 22 — This week’s market will mainly focus on the progress of the US-Iran talks and their subsequent impact. On Monday morning, the news of the US-Iran “talks falling apart” triggered a wave of panic in the market. Then, after stocks such as SK Hynix opened, they narrowed their losses, easing panic sentiment. It can be expected that this week’s market will still mainly concentrate on the US-Iran negotiations and the subsequent evolution of events. On the other hand, US PCE data and earnings reports from AI star stocks such as Micron will affect the market’s rational assessment of the AI investment boom.

On Thursday at 04:00, the Federal Reserve will release the results of its annual bank stress tests;

On Thursday at 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, the year-over-year rate of the May core PCE price index, the May personal spending month-over-month rate, the final seasonally adjusted annualized quarterly rate for Q1 actual GDP, the initial seasonally adjusted quarterly rate for Q1 actual personal consumption expenditures, the final seasonally adjusted annualized quarterly rate for Q1 actual personal consumption expenditures, the final year-over-year rate for the Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate, the May core PCE price index month-over-month rate, and the May durable goods orders month-over-month rate;

On Friday at 03:40, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will deliver remarks;

On Friday at 06:30, FOMC voter for 2027 and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will deliver remarks;

On Friday at 23:30, FOMC voter for 2026 and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will deliver remarks.

The Q1 earnings report of the new stock “Nvidia challenger” Cerebras Systems (CBRS) is scheduled to be released after the market closes in the United States on Tuesday, June 23, 2026. The market will focus on the company’s first set of results after its chip debut. Market expectations are that the company will post a Q1 loss of $0.14 per share, supported by a $25 billion backlog of orders, though it also faces risks related to high valuation and execution.

Memory chip maker Micron Technology (MU) will release its quarterly earnings after the US stock market closes on June 24 (Wednesday), which will become a key gauge of chip demand. The market will use this to observe whether that demand is still accelerating in growth. The company’s guidance calls for revenue of $33.5 billion, with a gross margin of about 81%.