On-chain data doesn’t lie, but market sentiment will

MMT holdings surged 35% over 24 hours, while the price only moved a little over 6%

This disconnect between OI and price is sometimes a signal that smart money starts first

On-chain transfers are increasing at the same time, and large addresses are moving

I’m not saying there’s an immediate pull-up, but when these signals show up, the market sentiment still hesitates

Most people are still watching, and some even think it’s a fake breakout

Holdings expanding in volume before price volume often means funds are quietly positioning

By the time the price truly starts accelerating, the people who react then will already be at a cost that’s higher by a slice

I don’t like chasing pumps, but I do like watching the market closely during this phase of “data anomalies, but sentiment hasn’t caught up”

It may not explode right away, but once it does, the upside room is bigger than when everyone rushes in at the same time

Hormuz “closes the Roshomon.” Swiss negotiations begin today. In this line of events, after the US–Iran memorandum of understanding goes into effect, Iran’s military announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier, citing that the “United States and Israel are alleged to have violated the terms of the memorandum.”

The Revolutionary Guard Navy warned by radio that “ships attempting to pass may encounter mines,” and this divergence between the main thread and this round of trading sentiment and the order book is actually the same risk appetite being transmitted—so you can’t just treat it as a headline.

If this main thread is only riding the hype, without adding volume or taking on positions, $BTC/$ETH might not drop first, but altcoins, liquidity, and contract-side liquidations are more likely to be amplified first.
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