The US-Iran talks are still proving difficult. Even though the draft has just passed, the negotiations in Switzerland have fallen apart—on one side, Israel continues to strike Lebanon, and on the other, Trump is blasting harsh remarks on social media, even saying that if the talks don’t work out, the US will take military control of the Strait of Hormuz, relying on collecting “toll fees” to subsidize military spending.

The more you think about it, the more absurd it becomes. Not to mention whether Trump is just talking big—in the first place, if the US hadn’t imposed sanctions and blocked Iranian ports, where would the basis for negotiation have come from? It’s precisely because of the pressure from the blockade that Iran sat down to talk. Opening the Strait of Hormuz was supposed to be at the core of the negotiations, yet before the strait was truly unblocked, the US backed out first. Now it’s been sealed back up again—was all the earlier fuss not for nothing?

Sometimes it’s hard to make sense of Trump. If you’re going to be tough, be tough all the way through. With every episode of TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), and with him crying “wolf” so many times, don’t expect us onlookers to keep taking him seriously—heck, even Iran doesn’t take him seriously anymore. The “14 points” he floated this time have also been heavily hammered by the Democrats, and after all this time, they still can’t get it done. Now Iran has directly announced it won’t negotiate anymore—so let’s see how Trump responds next.

I’m not worried about oil prices. If they break above 85 dollars, I’ll keep shorting— the logic is clear: oil prices can’t stay at high levels for long.

As for Bitcoin over the weekend, there’s really not much to say—it’s basically been churning within expectations. On Monday, it could be shaken by US-Iran headlines, but you can clearly see that buy orders around 60,000 dollars are fairly strong. Over the weekend, MSTR disclosed another round of adding BTC, which should help ease market concerns about the subsequent STRC ATM financing pressure. #btc $BTC ‌#美伊谈判推迟