#黄金早报 | June 22, 2026, Monday

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##
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|------|------|------|
| London Gold Spot | **$4,154.78/oz** | -0.79% (-33.03) |
| COMEX Futures | $4,169.14/oz | -1.83% (-76.76) |
| Shanghai Gold T+D | 935.78 yuan/gram | -4.94 |
| Bank Investment Bars | 922-925 yuan/gram | — |
| Brand Pure Gold Jewelry | 1,255-1,263 yuan/gram | — |
| 7-Day Change | **-1.45%** | Three consecutive weeks of decline |
| ATH Retracement | **-25.7%** | From January high of $5,599 |

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### Last Night’s Major Events

**1. Continued hawkish reverberations from the Federal Reserve**
FOMC maintains 3.50%-3.75%, but officials support rate hikes later this year on 9/18, with the median dot plot rate rising from 3.4% to 3.8%. Waller’s debut statement abandons forward guidance, with only 130 words, epitomizing "extreme hawkishness." The market has fully priced in a 25bp rate hike in October (85% probability), with a 38.5% chance of a July hike. The dollar index surpasses 101, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rebounds to 4.5%-4.6%. — This is the headwind for gold prices.
**2. Goldman Sachs cuts year-end gold target by $500**
From $5,400 to $4,900, warning that if rates are truly raised, prices could dip to $4,400 by year-end. This signals that the most steadfast bulls on Wall Street are beginning to waver. JPMorgan and HSBC also cancel expectations of rate cuts, with "higher and longer" interest rates now the consensus on Wall Street.
**3. US-Iran electronic MOU has taken effect, but offline signing delayed**
Israeli attacks on Lebanon have postponed offline signing, adding to Middle East uncertainties. However, the Strait of Hormuz has partially resumed navigation, and safe-haven premiums persist.
**4. Central banks worldwide are still buying — but short-term pricing power is not in their hands**
The World Gold Council survey shows: 89% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves over the next 12 months, with 45% planning to add more (a new record). China’s central bank bought about 10 tons net in May. But central banks operate through off-market or agreement channels, not directly on the trading surface — "can cover but not pull."

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### Resistance and Support Levels

| Level | International ($/oz) | Domestic (Yuan/gram) |
|------|-------------|-------------|
| Short-term Resistance | **4,213-4,220** | 942 |
| Strong Resistance | **4,270-4,280** (stabilizing above relieves downside) | 950 |
| Major Resistance | 4,400 | 960+ |
| Short-term Support | **4,120** | 920 |
| Strong Support | **4,020-4,030** (yearly bottom) | 900 |
| Extreme Support | 3,960-3,880 | 880- |

> **$4,200 is the dividing line between bulls and bears** — currently broken below, short-term bears dominate. Only a move back above 4,270 can reverse the downtrend.

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### Strategy Outlook

**Short-term (this week):** Slightly weak oscillation, first decline then watch data
- Monday opening shows inertia pressure, with $4,120-4,130 as the first line of defense
- Core logic unchanged: rate hike expectations > safe-haven demand > central bank buying
- **Not recommended to chase short positions or bottom-fish** — wait for data to clarify direction

**Medium-term (before July FOMC):** Data-driven volatility increases
- If PCE runs hot → rate hike expectations intensify → gold prices accelerate downward
- If PMI/employment data cools → rate hike expectations ease → brief rebound
- True turning point signal: core PCE drops below 2.8% for two consecutive months

**Long-term:** Central bank gold buying logic remains intact, but pace should be annualized
- De-dollarization + reserve diversification are structural trends
- Current monthly gold purchases of 50 tons still far above pre-2022 levels of 17 tons/month
- But this is not your short-term capital preservation clause

**Position suggestions:**
- Paper gold/ETFs: mainly watch, small positions around $4,020-4,030 (stop-loss at $3,960)
- Investment bars: buy in batches below 920 yuan/gram, add lighter positions on dips, avoid all-in bets
- Gold jewelry for essential needs: buy when needed, don’t time with consumer goods

--
| Date | Event | Impact Direction |
|------|------|---------|
| 6/23 Tuesday | S&P Global PMI preliminary | Strong data → bearish for gold |
| 6/23-25 | Summer Davos Forum (Dalian) | Central bank statements may disturb expectations |
| 6/25 Thursday | **PCE Price Index** + Q1 GDP final | Most important this week, hot data → further downside for gold |
| 6/26 Friday | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final + Fed officials’ speeches | Kashkari / Goolsbee / NY Fed President |
| July | July FOMC (7/29-30) | Next test window for rate hike decision |

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> ⚠️ **One-sentence summary:** Gold trades below the $4,200 watershed, with short-term bears dominant but nearing oversold. This week’s key pivot is PCE — data determines life or death, don’t gamble on direction, control your positions.