Technical View: XRP Still Below Major Resistance — Recovery Wave Lacks Confirmation

XRP remains under ongoing downward pressure despite staying above the key overall support zone around $1.00–$1.12. After breaking down from its bearish structure, the price has made several short-term recovery attempts but still trades below all major moving averages and key Fibonacci resistance levels.
Although momentum has slightly improved from its recent lows, the broader trend remains bearish until XRP can reclaim higher resistance areas and confirm a shift in market structure.
📈 Moving average structure (Bearish)
20 EMA: $1.186
50 EMA: $1.259
100 EMA: $1.355
200 EMA: $1.562
The price remains below all major moving averages ❌
20 EMA continues to act as an immediate dynamic resistance
50 and 100 EMAs restrict recovery attempts
200 EMA remains the main long-term trend barrier
👉 XRP must regain the moving averages before a sustainable bullish reversal can be confirmed.
📐 Fibonacci and Market Structure
The price is still below the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $1.5656
The long-term downtrend line remains intact
The recent rebound is still corrective within the broader downtrend
Lower highs continue to dominate the overall market structure
👉 Any recovery wave may target:
$1.18 → Immediate resistance / 20 EMA
$1.26 → 50 EMA resistance
$1.36 → 100 EMA resistance
$1.56 → Fibonacci 0.236 resistance
👉 Failure to hold current support could expose:
$1.12 → Short-term support
$1.00 → Critical overall support
Below $1.00 → Higher likelihood of another liquidity event
🧠 ICT / Smart Money Perspective
Previous selling drained significant liquidity from sellers below the support zone
The market structure remains bearish with lower highs in place
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) still exist above and remain unfilled
The recent rebound lacks strong momentum and appears corrective
No clear break of the bullish market structure has occurred yet
👉 Smart money flow still favors sellers until XRP recovers key resistance levels and invalidates the current bearish structure.
📉 RSI Momentum
RSI (14): 41.4
Recovering from oversold territory ⚠️
Momentum has improved compared to recent lows
Buyers are showing early participation
Trend confirmation is still absent
👉 RSI supports the possibility of a short-term recovery wave but does not yet confirm a major trend reversal.
📊 Key Levels
🔴 Resistance
$1.18 → 20 EMA
$1.26 → 50 EMA
$1.36 → 100 EMA
$1.56 → Fibonacci resistance
$1.56–$1.57 → 200 EMA zone
🟢 Support
$1.12 → Current support zone
$1.00 → Critical overall support
Below $1.00 → Increased downside risk
📌 Final Outlook
XRP remains trapped in a broader downtrend after months of persistent weakness, continuing to trade below all major EMA and Fibonacci resistance levels.
Regaining and holding above $1.18–$1.26 → opens recovery path toward $1.36 → $1.56
Break above $1.56 → significantly strengthens the medium-term market structure
Loss of support at $1.00 → increases chances of another move toward lower liquidity zones
✅ The overall structure remains bearish. While RSI continues to recover and the price attempts to stabilize above cycle lows, bulls need to reclaim the $1.18–$1.26 resistance zone before any larger recovery scenario can be considered reliable. Until then, sellers maintain control of the broader trend.
✅ ❌ 👉 $XRP